Thursday, December 5, 2013

Unemployment Assistance Part V: Proposed Changes

I’m a man, I can change, if I have to, I guess.
Very few of us enjoy change. It often forced upon us rather than a path we choose and I for see the crushing burden of our nation’s debt forcing change upon our public assistance programs, including our unemployment system.

Even though our nation’s debt may serve as the impetus for change, as detailed in Unemployment Assistance Part I, federal unemployment insurance constituted only 4.2% of total federal expenditures ($156 billion), and 11.3% of welfare expenditures in 2012. Thus, my proposed changes to the unemployment system are primarily motivated by decreasing waste, fraud, abuse, and inefficiencies, not solving our national debt crisis.

Prior to reading my proposed changes, I request you review my previous unemployment assistance posts:
Part I: Overview
Part II: Roles and Goals - Please especially read this post as it details what I see as the functions of a federally funded unemployment system
Part III: Current System
Part IV: Pros and Cons

Tldr:
  • Costs of unemployment system have ballooned in recent years. Between 2000 and 2010, a 1017% increase in dollars spent and a 698% in percent of GDP was realized.
  • Current system is very complex. I had to go to law manuals to get information...

Proposed Changes -

To preface, these changes are only for a national unemployment system and do not reflect my beliefs on how other groups (friends/family, private charities, local governments) should administer unemployment assistance. Today I will cover general rationale and aim for changes. My next post will go into the nuts and bolts, and dollars and cents of how to implement stated changes.

1) Increased participation of individual, friends/family, private charities, and state/local governments
One Size Does Not Fit All
I believe nationalized unemployment assistance should be the quinary (5th) safety net behind those listed above. I do not believe one size fits all. I would strongly encourage private charities and state/local governments to extend and increase benefits as they see fitting. In addition to tailoring assistance to the specific community in need, I believe empowering other groups would propel creative designs for unemployment assistance.

States already have the authority to offer additional unemployment assistance. The federal government simply needs to step out of the way. I find it interesting no states offer longer benefits than mandated or subsidized by the federal government.

2) Benefit repayment
As covered in Food Assistance Part I and Part 2, I believe implementing a repayment plan largely retains the benefits of public unemployment assistance in providing sufficient and timely aid, while minimizing the risk of waste, fraud, abuse, and inefficiency.

3) Reduce maximum duration
Consistent with functioning as quinary safety net, recipients would be eligible to receive benefits for 12 weeks. Again, private charities and local governments would be encouraged to extend benefits longer as they deem appropriate.

4) Increase eligibility
All individuals with documented loss of taxable income are eligible for benefits. While less common today, part-time workers may be disqualified from collecting unemployment benefits. Please see State of Minnesota's Guidelines for working while collecting unemployment benefits.

5) Maximum lifetime limit
Individuals would be eligible for 12 paid weeks of unemployment. Individuals would accumulate additional eligibility (up to 12 weeks) as they repaid the benefits they previously received. Mathematically this gets complicated and these specifics will be covered in my next blog post. 

6) Increase flexibility
Recipients would be able to choose (up to maximum limit) amount and duration of benefits. Rather than our current system where there is little incentive to take reduced benefits, with the addition of a repayment plan, individuals would have an incentive to only take those benefits they need.


Change recap
  • Increase individual, friend/family, private charity, and local government involvement
  • Implement repayment plan
  • Decrease duration of benefits
  • Increase eligible participants
  • Enact maximum lifetime limit
  • Increase payment flexibility

Tldr: I support a federally funded unemployment system, however, I believe it should be the quinary (5th) safety net behind:
  1. Individual
  2. Friends/family
  3. Private charities
  4. Local governments 
  5. National government

Advantages and disadvantages of proposed changes
Advantages -
  • Greater flexibility and creativity by moving away from the one size fits all structure
  • More citizens would be eligible for benefits (part time workers)
  • Decreased risk of waste, fraud, and abuse
  • Disincentives in place to reduce unnecessary utilization
  • Less dependence on national government
    • I see this as an advantage although some would argue it is a disadvantage
Disadvantages -
  • May increase confusion with a number of states, cities, and private charities each creating and administering their own system
  • Things may get worse before they get better
  • Infrastructure may not be in place for private charities and local governments to pick up slack at this time

I do not believe there is a panacea for our nation’s unemployment system. Each individual case is simply too complex and varied to have a cookie cutter system. I do believe the closest we can get is giving individuals and communities the greatest freedom to design and implement a system they see most fitting. Hence my rational for proposing changes removing the federal government as the primary provider of unemployment assistance and empowering others. 

Red GreenAdmittedly, unemployment assistance is a very complex and difficult subject. In my next post I hope to further eliminate confusion with my proposed changes by getting into specific dollars and cents what my proposed national unemployment assistance system would look like. Meanwhile, keep your stick on the ice.


Next Post Topic: Unemployment Assistance Part VI: Change Specifics

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Gardening Part III: 2013 Recap

September 15th. A day in history that brings together:

USA Today, Lehman Brothers, Christopher Columbus (Mayflower departs England), and Dan Marino (birthday)

AND…..  

Bemidji, MN 2013 First Frost Date!

While the first frost date for Bemidji, MN pales in comparison to other noteworthy events on September 15th, it does mark the conclusion of my garden’s harvesting season. 

Even during a shortened year (109 days between last and first frost dates, 123 days is average for Bemidji, MN), 2013 was my first profitable year. So much so I was able to cover my expenses since my garden’s inception in 2011! With the recent addition of rain barrels, I hope to further expand my garden in 2014, improve my yield of green peppers and okra, and increase variety with the addition of rhubarb and asparagus.

Consistent with SMART goals and QAPI , I enjoy collecting and analyzing data. I find progress is very difficult without being able to measure outcomes and identify areas for improvement. Below is a summary of all data collected from my initial garden in 2011 to the end of 2013.




Raw Data Spreadsheet


2013 Goal Review 
Profitable
  • Total Profit: $110.54
  • Revenue: $151.50 Expenses: $40.96
  • Return on Investment (RoI): 3.7
    • Does not include water and time costs
Garden size > 200 ft2
Learn how to grow plants from seeds
  • Tomatoes and green peppers were successfully transplanted
  • Plan to try okra and cucumbers next year

Build and test rain barrel watering system
  • Building and installation complete, testing still underway
  • 3 x 50 gallon capacity (150 gallons total), plan to add 2 additional barrels next year
  • Please email me if interested in detailed instructions in building your own system!

2013 was a historic year for gardening success, expansion, and innovation (rain barrels). Next year I plan to expand my garden to 300 ft2, add rhubarb and asparagus, perfect my rain barrel system, and reach a RoI of greater than 5.0. While September 15th, 2013 pales in comparison to other historic events, I will remember it as my first profitable gardening year :).


Next Post Topic: Book Review IV: When Helping Hurts

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Fantasy Football: 2013 Draft Recap

QAPI. If like me you often interact with the health care system in general, and with Medicare/Medicaid/CMS in particular, you have likely heard of QAPI. QAPI stands for:
QAPI: Quality Assurance & Performance Improvement
I would say there are few things we should model after government services, but QAPI is one of them.

I believe all endeavors should start with SMART goals prior to any action. QAPI should then follow all significant actions. This includes fantasy football, especially the draft. I believe the sooner to an event QAPI is utilized, the more fruitful the process. Thus, following each draft I carve out two ~15 minute sessions to analyze my draft performance. Ideally I will write initial thoughts within 1 hour of finishing the draft and further review my performance the next day. When utilizing QAPI, it is important to review the processes and overall system of decision making, not just the outcomes. We are interested in the means to the end, not the end. Perfect the means, and the end result (Fantasy Football Championship) will follow.

I adamantly support applying QAPI to fantasy football drafts as it is an efficient method of future improvement. I ask myself multiple, open-ended  questions:
  • What are my initial impressions/thoughts?
  • What went according to plan?
  • What was unexpected? 
    • How did I respond to unexpected events? 
    • Why did I respond in this manner?
    • How can I better prepare for these in the future?
  • What went well?
  • What went poorly?
  • What was just plain ugly?
  • What would I do the same?
  • What, if given the same set of circumstances, would I do differently?
  • What changes can be made to improve performance in the future?
  • What do I consider keys to success?
  • Summary/Final Thoughts

I have outlined my 2013 draft analysis QAPI in the following format:
  • Players who are struggling/breaking out 3 weeks into season with thoughts of how to anticipate these in the future
  • Draft Analysis – the good, bad, ugly, and final thoughts
  • Conclusion

Surprises -

Struggling -
  • Tom Brady
    • Amendola and Gronk injuries have dragged on
  • C.J. Spiller
    • New coaching staff, new QB, defenses stacking the box
    • Did have 1600+ yards with a 6.0 YPC average last year. I still haven’t given up hope on Spiller
  • RBs in general: Ray Rice, Spiller, T-Rich, Ridley, Morris, Foster, CJ, S-Jax
    • Haven’t given up hope on any of these yet. Although I was never high on Morris, I would definitely consider trading for him at this point
  • New York Giants
    • General decline in recent years, but unexpected to this degree
    • Monitor early declines. If changes are not made during the offseason, momentum may continue driving them further down
  • Kenny Britt
    • Maybe not a huge surprise, was high risk high reward to begin with
  • Lance Moore
    • No idea… Too many mouths to feed? If he wasn’t injured I would still give him a chance, but just drop him at this point
  • Roddy White
    • Injury – trade for this guy if you can get a reasonable value
  • Dwayne Bowe
    • Even with a great coach and passing scheme with Andy Reid, do apparently need a QB
  • Rob Gronkowski
    • Prolonged injury
Breaking out -
  • Jordan Cameron
    • I did see this coming as I picked him up quickly in the preseason. New head coach and offensive coordinator who love TEs. Expected the same from Rob Housler, but high ankle sprain has sidelined Housler
  • Pierre Garcon
    • Not convinced. Too shaky of QB play
  • Jimmy Graham
    • Huge stats, more than I would have even expected. Never underestimate elite QBs with elite pass catchers.
  • Julius Thomas, DEN TE
    • Peyton Manning – NFL is a QB league, anyone on a team with an elite quarterback has their value rise tremendously
  • Martellus Bennett
    • Not convinced, Cutler has his struggles coupled with poor offense line keeping him in to help with blocking...

Hawkeye League Analysis –
Overview
  • RB slide will hurt me as I loaded up with RBs on my first 3 picks
    • Steven Jackson fell to #40 overall, Steven Ridley to #46
  • Need to hit some fliers on WRs due to going heavy RB and Stafford early in the draft (only drafted 1 WR in first 6 picks)
    • I do like Lance Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, and Miles Austin as replacement level players. Thus I feel as if I am deep at replacement level WR, but unfortunately do not have a lot of sleeper WR potential which may hamstring my success
Good
  • #1 overall pick, random luck here as I do believe this was the best pick in the draft
  • Great value in RBs by being able to start Adrian Peterson (1), C.J. Spiller (16), Trent Richardson (17), and Darren Sproles (48)
  • Was able to secure two QBs I am very comfortable starting in Stafford and Eli Manning. I feel Eli Manning at 64th overall was great value
  • As mentioned above, very happy with caliber of replacement level WRs.
Bad
  • Dwayne Bowe at 33
    • Don’t get me wrong, I am very high on Bowe (Draft Plan), however I left Vincent Jackson on the board who probably has both a higher floor and higher ceiling
  • Projected Net Loss: 150 yards, 1 TD, 21 points
Ugly
  • Steve Smith at 49
    • Arghh!!! – I hate myself for this one. Welker is such an easy lock here over Steve Smith, whiffed big time on this one. Got flustered after Reggie Wayne was taken right before me
    • Projected net loss: 150 yards, 4 TDs, 39 points
  • Missed Jared Cook at 113
    • Was overconfident in my ability to secure Cook after 10 TEs had been drafted in an 8 team league
    • While ugly it is difficult to predict a projected net loss as we don’t know much about Cook or my two TEs in Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler
    • I estimate a 100 yard, 2 TD, 22 point loss here
Final thoughts
  • I feel I left a total of 82 points on the board or 5.1 points per week in a 16 game season
  • Due to the competitiveness of the league, I project I will finish 5/8 and miss the playoffs. A very poor draft overall considering I believe I had the best pick in the draft at #1 overall
  • This is the league I am 0-3 in, may not even be able to finish in top 5…

LDF Draft Analysis
Overview
  • As feared, got squeezed on my 57th overall pick (Draft Planning)
  • Very interesting draft as I reached for Gronk at 40 overall
  • This was not my original plan (originally would have take at 57), but with news Gronk is practicing in full pads, I was unable to pass him up in a low competition league where 8/12 teams make the playoffs. Decided to work towards having a solid second half team rather than first half team as I typically follow.
  • Actually waited longer on a QB than originally thought. Was expecting to pickup one at 105 however I left Eli Manning on the board in favor of Josh Gordon. Worked out alright as I ended up with Bradford and Palmer, two QBs I was willing to take a chance on.
    • Have since picked up Philip Rivers
  • Going to suffer at RB (as expected without having a 2nd RB in the first 4 rounds) as Ivory or Mendenhall is currently my #2. Going to need a break on waivers.
Good
  • Huge upside with Gronk
Bad
  • No real breakout candidates as was stuck drafting the likes of Mendenhall, Powell, Ingram on my bench to try to get a #2 RB. Was good value in WRs at this point I was forced to pass on to shore up RB position
    • Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson
Ugly
  • Nothing really ugly about this draft, I did get heckled about waiting so long to take a QB, but I still believe it was best to wait. I actually took the 17th QB off the board for my first QB in a 12 team league. Five other teams had already taken backups…
Final thoughts
  • While I do not disagree with any of my picks, I do not like the way the dice fell in this draft. Going back it probably would have been wiser to take Le’Von Bell rather than Ivory. Tough to say though.
  • May have left Ingram on the board and taken T.Y. Hilton
  • Given I can secure a #2 RB my team should be very solid.

2013 has the looks of a rough year in fantasy football. I have a started out 0-3 in the Hawkeye League and 2-1 in LDF league. A high probability exists of having a second straight year where I fail to make the playoffs. This would put me at making the playoffs in 3/5 leagues in 2012 and 2013 combined. Still better than average, but I believe I should be able to achieve 4/5 or 5/5 playoff bound teams. The key takeaway message from this year’s drafting: preparation is still key. Both drafts went unexpectedly. I feel I was able to effectively adapt well for both situations with the exception of taking Steve Smith over Welker. That one is going to haunt me all year… As showcased above, I strongly recommend utilizing QAPI in both fantasy football as well as other significant endeavors to improve overall performance and future decision making.


Next Post Topic: Gardening Recap

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Book Review III: A Foreign Policy of Freedom

Overall Rating: 4.5/5 

Estimated Reading Time: 10 hours (371 pages, ~1.5 minutes / page)

Why I choose to read:
  • 2012 presidential primary debates spurred my interest in foreign policy due to controversy on Israel-Iran tensions.
    • Desire to hear Ron Paul’s stance on foreign policy from the horse’s mouth, not from secondary media outlets.
  • Read Ron Paul’s The Revolution and End the Fed further raising my interest in understanding Ron Paul’s noninterventionist beliefs.
  • Numerous foreign events in recent times:
    • Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Israel, Korean Peninsula, G-7, G-20, United Nations, NATO
  • Underdeveloped political area of mine.


Background:
  • Subject
    • Ron Paul’s beliefs and insights into America’s foreign policy. More specifically, an in depth study of Ron Paul’s support of noninterventionist foreign policy.
  • Year Written: 1997
  • Cultural Context
    • 6 years post Gulf War
    • Soviet Union dissolved in 1991
      • Cold War


Author Details:
  • Promoter of Austrian Economics
    • Ludwig von Mises
    • Murray Rothbard
  • Libertarian platform
  • Ron Paul Channel
    • Online video platform with episodes of Ron Paul’s views on current and controversial issues
  • Texas senator for 25 years
  • Detailed Biographys


Reflections:
What I appreciated -
  • Increased my understanding of how our foreign policy is perceived worldwide.
  • Makes me extremely frustrated with the wasted resources (people, money) and harm to citizens of both our own country and other countries.
  • Increased sympathy for Ron Paul. His steadfastness in holding to his beliefs in the face of misrepresentation and malignment by others is noteworthy.
  • Has tried so hard to steer our country away from foolish decisions with few if any results. I feel we are now reaping the fruit of our planting in the 21st century with 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Korea, China, etc.
    • It is no wonder why Ron Paul receives more donations from military members and their families than any other candidate.
  • Free pdf of entire book at Ludwig von Mises Institute
Shortcomings -
  • Due to publication date of 1997, has missed a number of foreign affairs in the last 15 years.
    • Would have been very interesting to hear how these events fit into Ron Paul’s framework.


Key Messages:
  • Ron Paul believes in policy of armed neutrality (linked with free trade and strong defense)
  • A policy of non-intervention would make America stronger, wealthier, more influential, and a respected beacon of liberty
  • Giveaway programs (foreign aid) and trade barriers (tariffs) create contempt, hostility, national debt, and decrease American business competitiveness
  • Giving foreign aid for peaceful purposes (humanitarian aid) allows countries to free up their own limited capital for military purposes
  • Treating our enemy’s enemy as friends is short lived
  • 60% of our military budget is being spent on the defense of other nations (1997)
  • In an attempt to balance interests we anger all sides
  • By trying to support both sides we alienate both sides
  • When one person can initiate war (president), a republic no longer exists
  • The president may be commander in chief, but Congress authorizes funding, no funding = no foreign intervention
    • Waging war and ratifying treaties is a legislative function, not executive
  • Out of political fear, Congress relinquished/transferred its war declaring power to the president
  • In the end, the economic consequences of world domination will dictate our policies
  • The demand to sacrifice liberty at home to promote freedom and democracy abroad rings hollow
    • Hypocritical to use outside force to achieve freedom
    • Economic law eventually overcomes politicians deceit
    • Seems ironic we have been allies with Sadaam, Osama, and the Islamists in Iran
    • Noninterventionists are misrepresented as isolationists, however the consequences of interventionist polices actually lead to isolationism
      • Decreased allies, increased enemies, worsened economic conditions
  • Opposing continuing wars is not a lack of support for the troops, in many ways it is supporting them by bring them home to their families
  • Henry Grady Weaver:
"Most of the major ills of the world have been caused by well-meaning people who ignored the principle of individual freedom, except as applied to themselves, and who were obsessed with fanatical zeal to improve the lot of mankind-in-the-mass through some pet formula of their own. The harm done by ordinary criminals, murderers, gangsters, and thieves is negligible in comparison with the agony inflicted upon human beings by the professional do-gooders, who attempt to set themselves up as gods on earth and who would ruthlessly force their views on all others with the abiding assurance that the end justifies the means."
  • Rather than democrat or republican should use terms libertarian and socialist as both democrats and republicans support a mix of both libertarian and socialist policies
  • We sacrifice future wealth for present indulgence at the expense of individual liberty
    • The debtor is slave to the lender
  • Bad ideas, whether promoted by men of bad or good intentions will produce bad results
  • Wars are won with sound economics (my thought)
  • Ron Paul was for responding to 9/11 with intelligent military force
  • Before committing to a war, success, our enemy, and our exit strategy should all be defined and approved by Congress
  • Should avoid entangling alliances and have an exit strategy for all alliances
  • War is often built around money (like everything else) rather than our nation’s security
  • Ron Paul is very much against the UN/NATO (decreases America’s sovereignty)
  • Thomas Jefferson said “peace, commerce, honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none”
  • The United States should strive to be an example to other nations such that foreign peoples/governments will enact their own change outside of U.S. influence
  • War results in innocent people dying and damaged economies
  •  “A government big enough to give you everything is big enough to take it all away”
    • David Crocket
  • We support a military takeover as long as the new dictator does as we tell him
  • To dismiss terrorism as a result of Muslim’s hating us because we are rich and free is a fraud
  • Preemptive wars for humanitarian causes could be privately funded and manned
    • LOVE this idea!
  • Cannot fund both foreign entanglements and domestic entitlements
  • Supports move towards localized government and weak central government
  • Elections are a consequence (good) of freedom; freedom is achieved first and then elections
  • Using force contradicts the moral foundation of a free society


To who would I recommend reading?
  • Everyone. Our personal and country’s safety, freedom, peace, and prosperity is at risk
  • Especially young and middle-aged as we bear the greatest human and financial cost

To who would I not recommend reading?
  • Ron Paul
  • Those who have read it in the last 10 years
  • Read these books first:
    • Doctrine - Driscoll
    • Economics in One Lesson – Hazlitt


I believe A Foreign Policy of Freedom is one of Ron Paul’s greatest works. It is a shame it has not garnered greater attention, especially in light of recent foreign conflicts, largely the outcomes of seeds sown long ago. I agree with Ron Paul, a policy of non-intervention would make America stronger, wealthier, more influential, and a respected beacon of liberty. All things I believe all people would agree are worth striving for.


Next Post Topic: Fantasy Football: 2013 Draft Recap

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Fantasy Football 2013: Draft Planning

After a disappointing year of fantasy football in 2012 where I failed to make the playoffs in 1 of my 3 leagues, I will be hoping to rebound with a better performance in 2013. Below I will layout my flexible blueprint of how I plan to accomplish my self-promoted road to the playoffs without watch any games method.

Today's post is broken down into an initial disclaimer, followed by a separate strategy for both of my leagues, and concludes with a list of what I perceive as undervalued and overvalued players based on ESPN average draft position (ADP).

Disclaimer -
Please see "How to win your league without watching games" to see how important the format and scoring system is to proper player valuation. This is especially important in my lists of undervalued, overvalued, and sleeper lists. Again, it is essential you modify player valuations based on league format and scoring system. Do not ignore this!


Hawkeye League -
  • 8 team, 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 DST, ppr, 6 point TD passes, 4 teams make playoffs, bonuses for 100 rushing/receiving yards, 300 for pass yards
  • RBs and TEs less valuable, QBs and WRs more valuable
  • 1st pick
    • 1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49, 64, 65, 80, 81, 96, 97, 112, 113
  • General strategy
    • Wait on TE
      • I cannot see myself drafting a TE before the end of the draft. I would take Graham at 32 and Gronk at 48 but I do not see there being any chance either of these two would get to me at these spots.
        • Problem of snake type drafts and reason I support auction formats.
      • Finley, Cook, Myers, Bennent are excellent replacements
        • Even longer fliers in Fred Davis, Jordan Cameron, Rob Housler
    • Want 1 QB being Eli Manning or better, not opposed to taking 2 QBs if value is there.
      • Unlikely Brees/Rodgers will fall to 16, I have Peyton as my 18th overall player thus will miss out on Peyton.
      • Would take Stafford/Ryan/Brady at 33
        • May be a decent chance I hit one of these
    • While I love that I will get Adrian Peterson, I do not like being on the ends of a snake draft. It is nice that it is only an 8 team league rather than a 12 team league and I will only be waiting 15 spots between selections as opposed to 23 in a 12 team draft.
      • I also think there is a lot of value in the first 16 picks, being the first pick gives me the best chance at acquiring 3 great players.
        • In fact I think if given the option I would take the #1 pick this year, talk about high expectations, my draft to lose!
    • Safe WRs look to be gone by pick 55, thus will ideally have picked up 3-4 quality WRs after my 49th pick (2-3 RBs, 1 QB, 3-4 WRs)
      • 7 total picks (1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49)
    • Difficult to project exactly who will be available after the first 5 rounds. I do plan to have a minimum of 3 RBs after my 65th pick
      • Would be targeting Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Shane Vereen, Le’Veon Bell (worst case scenario)
    • I am comfortable with a lot of WR fliers thus I am most willing to punt on WRs.
      • Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, Steve Johnson, Michael Floyd
        • All these I think can serve as serviceable WRs who would not surprise me to eclipse 1000 yards and 6 TDs
    • Also okay with have 1 questionable starting QB.
      • I like Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Michael Vick, and Sam Bradford if I am able to bypass a 2nd QB earlier in the draft in favor of good value at another position.
  • Draft Plan
    • Keep plans simple and flexible, weird things seem to always happen in drafts :)
    • RB/WR/RB/QB/WR/WR/WR
      • AP/A.J. Green/Forte/Stafford/Fitzgerald/Bowe/Wayne
    • Will be looking to take a QB after 49 if Eli Manning or better is available. Otherwise plan to wait on 2nd QB until essentially end of draft.
    • As for TE, will again wait to essentially the end of the draft.
    • Fill in RBs/WRs in between.

LDF -
  • 12 team, 2 keeper, standard scoring with 8 teams making playoffs
  • Following last year’s trend I traded up for keepers, trading Matt Forte and the 112th overall pick for C.J. Spiller and the 133rd overall pick.
    • I will also be keeping Calvin Johnson

  • Pick 9
    • 33, 40, 57, 64, 81, 88, 105, 129, 133, 136, 153, 160, 177, 184
  • Very difficult draft to predict as later rounds will be very difficult to know who will be there (rationale for doing mock drafts)
  • As in Hawkeye League, I will be planning on punting TEs and QBs
  • TEs
    • Would take Graham (kept) at 40 or Gronk at 57, but unlikely either gets to those spots.
  • QBs
    • 7 QBs were kept (including Stafford) meaning there will be some good players at pick 33 :)
    • I would take Matt Ryan (and Stafford if would have been available) at 57, probably unlikely Ryan would ever fall to 57 though
    • Thus plan will be to take a QB immediately before teams start taking their backup QB which will probably be in the 9th-11th rounds at the earliest, or picks 105 - 136.
      • Will grab Luck/Wilson/Kaepernick at 105 or whoever is left at 136
  • RBs
    • All depends on value, plan have 2 after my 40th pick
      • From mock draft basically need 2 by 40 unless a stellar WR is still on the board such as Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, or Larry Fitzgerald
    • Will depend on value for my 64th pick if I end up waiting until 81 to secure my 3rd RB or take at 64
  • WRs
    • I will plan to fill in WRs when value does not exist at other positions as I feel WRs are the deepest later in the draft.
    • As in Hawkeye League, I feel WR dropoff at 55, makes for a difficult 57th pick
  • Overall
    • Unlikely I take anything other than a RB or WR before my QB at 105 :)
  • Based on players remaining, worst case scenario is Chris Johnson at 33 and Bowe/Amendola at 40
    • Unfortunately am 1 pick off of having L-Fitz, V-Jax, or Andre Johnson guaranteed at 40.


Player Valuations -
Format:
  • Player Name (ESPN Average Draft Position (##))
    • Notes
    • I would take ahead (or would rather take) of: ____________

Undervalued -

Overvalued -

Sleepers -

It is my hope the above two case examples provide real time and real world studies of my fantasy football methodology. As in 2012 I will provide a post-draft, mid-year, and year end recap. 


Next Post Topic: Book Review III

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Sabbatical #2: 4 Year Anniversary!

Today marks the 4 year anniversary of being married to my beautiful bride and wonderful wife:

For our 4 year anniversary, we spent the long weekend golfing, biking, and touring Baxter/Brainerd Minnesota.


I plan to finish out the end of the summer with a couple posts discussing fantasy football and then resume public assistance program topics starting in the fall.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Fantasy Football: Winning without watching any games Part I

Playing fantasy football without watching the games is like:
  • Watching movie previews and claiming to be a movie critic
  • Acting like an expert rodeo clown on the premise you…


I acknowledge the claim you can be one of the best performing teams in your fantasy football league without watching more than a handful of regular season games (and mostly Vikings games...) in the last 5 years sounds absurd. I assure you though, I am fully committed to this strategy. More importantly, my wife fully supports the countless hours I save by not watching them as well :).

I started playing fantasy football in 2004 and have been playing ever since. Click the expandable text below to see a synopsis of my performances with a few comments. Otherwise the bottom line is listed right below.

Previous Results


Bottom line:
Playoffs made while watching games: 3/7
Playoffs made while not watching games: 10/12

The numbers speak for themselves. The most common objection I receive is I have gotten better as I have gained experience. My counter would be so have all my other league members, especially in the Warhawk league. In addition, the case I am presenting is the ability to win fantasy football leagues without watching games. Regardless of how I improved, I have consistently shown across multiple leagues, spanning multiple years, my strategy of not watching any games has been very successful.

I will showcase transparency by posting my research and plan before my drafts as in 2012. Due to the extensive amount of information and lengthy explanations, I plan to breakdown the topic into multiple posts as follows:
    1. Overview
    2. League Rules and Scoring System
    3. Risk Management Overview
    4. ADP Charts
    5. Tiers (initial player valuation)
    6. Research
    7. Update Tiers (second player valuation)
    8. Draft Map
    9. Mock Drafts
    10. Draft Day

Draft Strategy Overview –
Most of my time and effort goes into draft preparation. Draft preparation is to fantasy football what rodeo clowns are to bull riders: you don’t need clowns to ride a bull, but things get ugly without them.

My draft preparation starts ~1 month prior to my draft. I recommend budgeting 10-20 hours to complete draft preparation (more detailed estimates are found throughout ensuing posts). My time investment into fantasy football is heavily front loaded. I spend little time managing my team after the draft. Remember, I don’t watch games. The time I save not watching games is far more substantial than the initial draft preparation time investment.

Building my house of cards :)
My edge in fantasy football over my competition comes not from picking winners (aka sleepers), but rather from managing risk and getting good value with each draft pick. I loosely ascribe to value based drafting and finding an optimal balance of risk and reward.

In summary, I want to get the best value for the players I am taking at my draft position. Getting good value is something everyone wants, however, in the following posts I will go into detail exactly how I maximize value and manage risk.


Next week's topic: Fantasy Football Part 2: Preparing for Draft Day

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Gardening Part II: Gardening Goals

SMART Goals. Specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, time bound. I love setting goals and am a supporter of using the SMART model of goal setting. 2013 is my third year of gardening. I believe I am turning the corner of becoming a successful gardener. I had no goals in 2011, one goal: preventing deer from eating my garden, in 2012, and have established the following as my goals for 2013, 2014, and beyond:

2013 -
  • Profitable (even if minuscule)
    • Current progress
      • Expenditures: $40.96 (excluding rain barrels)
        • Does not include time or water
      • Revenue: $22.00
      • 53.6% of the way to turning a profit as of 7/14/13
  • Garden size > 200 ft2
  • Learn how to grow plants from seeds
  • Build and test rain barrel
Russ' Remarkable Rain Barrels :)

2014 -
  • Garden size > 300 ft2
  • Return on Investment (ROI): 3:1
    • I believe 2014 will be a breakthrough year. I feel I have learned enough to start maximizing production and many of my upfront costs out of the way.
  • $1 per square foot ROI
    • Cost effective plants via Cheap Vegetable Gardner
    • I utilize ~75% of my garden for planting purposes (25% for rows)
    • Need ~$1.33 per square foot of growing space
    • Thus (for 2014) 300’(0.75) x $1.33 = $300
  • Transplant rhubarb/asparagus
    • ~10 ft2of rhubarb and 15 ft2of asparagus


Long Term -
  • Increase garden size by 100-200 ft2 per year
  • $1.5 per square foot (total ft2); $2 per planting square foot (excludes rows)
  • Greenhouse effect
    • Living in northern Minnesota I need to lengthen growing season
    • Expensive, will need to do research
  • Self sufficient garden with use of composting

Please send me pictures and your own gardening goals (past, current, or future) you may have. I look forward to evaluating if I met my goals in the fall!


Next Post Topic: Fantasy Football: How to Win Your League Without Watching Any Games Part I