Today's post is broken down into an initial disclaimer, followed by a separate strategy for both of my leagues, and concludes with a list of what I perceive as undervalued and overvalued players based on ESPN average draft position (ADP).
Disclaimer -
Please see "How to win your league without watching games" to see how important the format and scoring system is to proper player valuation. This is especially important in my lists of undervalued, overvalued, and sleeper lists. Again, it is essential you modify player valuations based on league format and scoring system. Do not ignore this!
- 8 team, 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 DST, ppr, 6 point TD passes, 4 teams make playoffs, bonuses for 100 rushing/receiving yards, 300 for pass yards
- RBs and TEs less valuable, QBs and WRs more valuable
- 1st pick
- 1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49, 64, 65, 80, 81, 96, 97, 112, 113
- General strategy
- Wait on TE
- I cannot see myself drafting a TE before the end of the draft. I would take Graham at 32 and Gronk at 48 but I do not see there being any chance either of these two would get to me at these spots.
- Problem of snake type drafts and reason I support auction formats.
- Finley, Cook, Myers, Bennent are excellent replacements
- Even longer fliers in Fred Davis, Jordan Cameron, Rob Housler
- Want 1 QB being Eli Manning or better, not opposed to taking 2 QBs if value is there.
- Unlikely Brees/Rodgers will fall to 16, I have Peyton as my 18th overall player thus will miss out on Peyton.
- Would take Stafford/Ryan/Brady at 33
- May be a decent chance I hit one of these
- While I love that I will get Adrian Peterson, I do not like being on the ends of a snake draft. It is nice that it is only an 8 team league rather than a 12 team league and I will only be waiting 15 spots between selections as opposed to 23 in a 12 team draft.
- I also think there is a lot of value in the first 16 picks, being the first pick gives me the best chance at acquiring 3 great players.
- In fact I think if given the option I would take the #1 pick this year, talk about high expectations, my draft to lose!
- Safe WRs look to be gone by pick 55, thus will ideally have picked up 3-4 quality WRs after my 49th pick (2-3 RBs, 1 QB, 3-4 WRs)
- 7 total picks (1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49)
- Difficult to project exactly who will be available after the first 5 rounds. I do plan to have a minimum of 3 RBs after my 65th pick
- Would be targeting Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Shane Vereen, Le’Veon Bell (worst case scenario)
- I am comfortable with a lot of WR fliers thus I am most willing to punt on WRs.
- Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, Steve Johnson, Michael Floyd
- All these I think can serve as serviceable WRs who would not surprise me to eclipse 1000 yards and 6 TDs
- Also okay with have 1 questionable starting QB.
- I like Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Michael Vick, and Sam Bradford if I am able to bypass a 2nd QB earlier in the draft in favor of good value at another position.
- Draft Plan
- Keep plans simple and flexible, weird things seem to always happen in drafts :)
- RB/WR/RB/QB/WR/WR/WR
- AP/A.J. Green/Forte/Stafford/Fitzgerald/Bowe/Wayne
- Will be looking to take a QB after 49 if Eli Manning or better is available. Otherwise plan to wait on 2nd QB until essentially end of draft.
- As for TE, will again wait to essentially the end of the draft.
- Fill in RBs/WRs in between.
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- 12 team, 2 keeper, standard scoring with 8 teams making playoffs
- Following last year’s trend I traded up for keepers, trading Matt Forte and the 112th overall pick for C.J. Spiller and the 133rd overall pick.
- I will also be keeping Calvin Johnson
- Pick 9
- 33, 40, 57, 64, 81, 88, 105, 129, 133, 136, 153, 160, 177, 184
- Very difficult draft to predict as later rounds will be very difficult to know who will be there (rationale for doing mock drafts)
- As in Hawkeye League, I will be planning on punting TEs and QBs
- TEs
- Would take Graham (kept) at 40 or Gronk at 57, but unlikely either gets to those spots.
- QBs
- 7 QBs were kept (including Stafford) meaning there will be some good players at pick 33 :)
- I would take Matt Ryan (and Stafford if would have been available) at 57, probably unlikely Ryan would ever fall to 57 though
- Thus plan will be to take a QB immediately before teams start taking their backup QB which will probably be in the 9th-11th rounds at the earliest, or picks 105 - 136.
- Will grab Luck/Wilson/Kaepernick at 105 or whoever is left at 136
- RBs
- All depends on value, plan have 2 after my 40th pick
- From mock draft basically need 2 by 40 unless a stellar WR is still on the board such as Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, or Larry Fitzgerald
- Will depend on value for my 64th pick if I end up waiting until 81 to secure my 3rd RB or take at 64
- WRs
- I will plan to fill in WRs when value does not exist at other positions as I feel WRs are the deepest later in the draft.
- As in Hawkeye League, I feel WR dropoff at 55, makes for a difficult 57th pick
- Overall
- Unlikely I take anything other than a RB or WR before my QB at 105 :)
- Based on players remaining, worst case scenario is Chris Johnson at 33 and Bowe/Amendola at 40
- Unfortunately am 1 pick off of having L-Fitz, V-Jax, or Andre Johnson guaranteed at 40.
Player Valuations -
Format:
- Player Name (ESPN Average Draft Position (##))
- Notes
- I would take ahead (or would rather take) of: ____________
It is my hope the above two case examples provide real time and real world studies of my fantasy football methodology. As in 2012 I will provide a post-draft, mid-year, and year end recap.
Next Post Topic: Book Review III
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