Fantasy Football Part 4: 2013 Recap

With the Super Bowl commencing in 3 days, I felt it was fitting to recap my 2012 fantasy football season. Overall the year finished in typical fashion. One exception may have been the high level play of young QBs in RGIII, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, and Andrew Luck. As in other years, a few anomalies were present with AP having a career year and Tony Gonzalez reemerging as an elite TE at the age of 36, but a small number of anomalies are to be expected. Unfortunately, a plague of injuries kept me out of the playoffs for the first time in 4 years.


League Results (record; league standing):

• Hawkeye
• 7-7; 3/8
• House of Prayer
• 5-8; 10/12
• Warhawk
• 8-5; 4/12

Review of Goals:

• Win >60% of my matchups resulting in 24-16 record (not met)
• Combined record: 20-20 (0.500)
• Finish in top half of each league (not met)
• 2/3

Concluding Thoughts:

• Overall
• I really thought Collie was going to be a great value. I thought both him and Wayne would have good seasons, but planned on getting Collie much later. Unfortunately he never played a game… tough break.

• Hawkeye League: 7-7; 3/8
• Very impressed with my performance. As mentioned in Draft Planning this is a very competitive league and I was stuck with what I considered the worst draft position (8/8). The draft position lived up to my fears with Stafford finishing as the 10th best QB and Chris Johnson finishing as the 11th best RB. (drafted as 4th RB and 4th QB off the board)
• Draft Review

• Rivers was a huge disappointment.
• Stuck to my guns though and went with 2 good QBs.
• I still like taking a QB here, just took the wrong one :/
• Standard injuries with losing Percy Harvin (PPR league), Peyton Hillis, and Austin Collie.

• House of Prayer: 5-8; 10/12
• Frustrating year with House of Prayer. A few draft mistakes combined with a case of the injury bug was too much to overcome. Given only one setback (draft mistakes or injury bug), I believe I would have had a very solid team. Green Bay's injuries really hurt me :(
• Draft Review
• As expected Isaac Redman was a wasted pick (see Draft Analysis)
• Should have drafted D. Thomas rather than Jordy Nelson.
• Same risk, higher reward with D. Thomas.
• Rivers was a mistake, was hoping for trade bait with him, but didn't realize Romo and E. Manning were still on the board.
• Sadly would have possible gotten Doug Martin…
• Injuries: Greg Jennings (9), Jimmy Graham (2), Jordy Nelson (5), DMC (5), Austin Collie (16), DHB (3), Cedric Benson (12), Rashad Jennings (6), Ryan Williams (11).
• (x) indicate number of games missed

• Warhawk league: 8-5; 4/12
• Went as expected, weak competition leading to good record. Shorted myself on RB thinking Forte and Matthews would both be locks. Unfortunately Matthews was terrible (1 week of double digit points).
• Draft Review
• Matthews disappointed, would have still been a sucker though. I had Matthews as a top 8 pick before collarbone injury. Getting him with the 34th overall pick would have been irresistible for me.
• Also took Philip Rivers as my backup QB, the San Diego Super Chargers were a major disappointment.
• Matt Ryan and D. Thomas were strong picks.

• Standard injuries with Jordy Nelson banged up.
• Being a keeper league I am a little weak with my 2nd keeper. This is normally okay and I am very happy with having Calvin Johnson as a keeper, especially with QBs getting added depth next year.

Adjustments for Next Year:

• No major changes, I am very pleased with the current draft system.
• Outside of AP, Foster, Rice, McCoy (in PPR leagues), continue with punting RBs.
• Just too many injuries, time shares, and potential waiver wire pickups.
• I still believe drafting a top 3 QB in the middle to late first round is the way to go. For standard leagues (10-13 QBs) can wait a long time on QBs after first 3. In 2 QB leagues will still want 2 solid QBs.
• Quality QBs
  
  
  Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, P. Manning, Newton, RGIII, Romo, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, A. Luck, Colin Kaepernick.
  

  • All more risky than top 3.
  
  

All things considered (btw, I’m becoming a fan of NPR programming, although I am completely against the government subsidies used to fund it), the 2012 Fantasy Football Season was by and large a disappointment. Missing the playoffs really bothers me, and my 0.500 record adds insult to injury. Plans for next year include participating in same leagues and sticking with the same draft strategy. Next year I will detail how I plan to win my fantasy football leagues without watching any NFL games. With the Super Bowl commencing in 3 days, I predict the Baltimore Ravens win by 4.

Next Week's Topic: Private Charities Part IV: The Social and Freedom Reasons

Blog Map

Planning without action is futile, action without planning is fatal.

A man without a plan is a man planning to fail.

Four months of blogging has further affirmed my need to create a master organizational chart of how I intend to weave together numerous blog posts of various topics. I hope a flexible framework to intelligibly order posts will achieve a greater continuity of writing and assist readers to know what is coming down the pipeline. In addition, I believe an organic organization will aid me in resisting the urge to write about whatever I feel like resulting in randomness, confusion, and wasted time contemplating what to write about each week. 

The diagram to your immediate right is symbolic of a might river having numerous tributaries flowing into each segment. Listed below are massive organizational charts and a solid block of text inclusive of individual posts. Please click on the charts to follow a link to a larger document. All of the charts contain the same information simply presented in different formats. Upon completion they were very messy so check them out and see what works best for you! 

Throughout the year I will be continually updating my blog map so please check permanent link in the blog directory to your right often!

Master Blog Map Charts:

Downloadable Charts (for easier viewing): Blog Map Organizational Chart, Blog Map Vertical Chart, Blog Map Horizontal Chart



Master Blog Map Text Block:

Role of government --> Voting issues --> Basic Level of Care -->Food Assistance -->Private Charities: Overview -->Private Charities: Economic Reason -->Private Charities: Outcome Reason --> Private Charities: Freedom and Social Reasons -->Private Charities: Concerns -->Food Assistance: Specific Numbers -->Poverty Line Calculation -->Maximum Lifetime Limits -->Secondary Safety Net --> Subsidized Housing: Overview -->Subsidized Housing: Rent Control -->Unemployment and Disability -->Health Care: Overview -->Public and Private Health Care -->My Health Insurance Business Model -->Social Security --> Foreign Policy: Overview -->Defense Spending -->Iraq War -->Afghanistan War  -->Cost of Cruise Missile -->Education: Overview --> -->Education: Private/Public/Charter/Home Schooling --> Education: Teachers Unions -->Education: Government Subsidized Loans--> Education: Government Subsidized College Education --> Education: Myths of College Education --> Infrastructure: Overview --> Infrastructure: Transportation  --> Infrastructure: Pollution Controls --> Infrastructure: Disaster Management -->Government Subsidies: Overview (venture capitalist) --> Subsidies: Farm/Dairy -->Subsidies: Green Energy  --> Subsidies: Small Business --> Subsidies: Oil --> Subsidies: Tariffs -->Subsidies: Minimum Wage -->Tax Policy: Overview -->National Debt: Overview -->Government Spending Controls -->Rate of Wealth Redistribution -->Legislative System: Overview --> Legislative System: Super Majority -->Legislative System: Local Control -->Legalized Marijuana? --> Legalize Online Poker/Gambling  -->Discrimination/Affirmative Action -->Illegal Immigration -->Gay Marriage -->Abortion -->Gun Control -->Current Issues – will be mixed in before as well



Perhaps unsurprisingly due to the massive nature of my topical progression, it currently appears I have a sufficient number of topics to last me three years! A bittersweet realization indeed. I am slightly overwhelmed at the sheer volume of writing and formidable task that lies ahead, but greatly encouraged there is no reason to fear running out of material and excited by the numerous topics I am eager to write about.


Next Week’s Topic: Fantasy Football Part IV: Year End Review

Book Review I: End the Fed

Overall rating: 5/5


Estimated Reading Time: 5 hours (285 pages, ~1.5 minutes / page)

Why I choose to read:

• Formerly read and appreciated Ron Paul’s book The Revolution which briefly outlines libertarian principles in general, and Paul’s beliefs in particular. I was subsequently compelled to read additional works authored by Ron Paul and choose to start with End the Fed
• Watched 2012 republican primary debates and found while at times Ron Paul poorly articulated his beliefs and convictions, his reasoning resounded strongly with my intellect and life experiences
• Lots of recent news on the Federal Reserve (QE1, QE2, QE3, bond swapping) combined with my perceived ignorance of the function/role of the Federal Reserve
• Stellar Amazon Reviews

Background:

• Subject: Societal consequences of fiat money managed by a central entity, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve
• Year written: 2009
• Cultural context -
• 2009 national debt: $11.9 trillion
• Post banking, housing, and automotive bailout
• Growing distrust surrounding government and large corporation use of federal funds
• CEOs of bailed out corporations receiving millions of dollars in salary

Author details - Texas senator for 25 years Libertarian platform Detailed Biography RonPaulChannel.com Wikipedia

Ron Paul

Reflections:

• What I liked about the book - 
• Easy to read for those with no or limited background in economics and fiscal policy.
• Efficient in its presentation, little wasted words or topics detracting from intended purpose.
• Timely message in the midst of record setting deficits (both overall and yearly).
• Compelled me to read many more economic books by Austrian economists and other books/authors recommended by Ron Paul.
• Exceeded my expectations – I now know why his followers chant “End the Fed!”
• Numerous take-aways/key messages/profound statements.

• What I didn’t like about the book -
• Although I do not have a specific example, I felt there was a time or two Dr. Paul did take an extremist view. However, as a general rule, I do defer to Dr. Paul’s 25 years experience in the federal political scene as being vastly more experienced and insightful than my limited life experiences.
• I feel pressured to present more negative reflections, but I really don’t have any! Probably the reason I gave it 5 stars ;)

Key take-a-way messages - lots... read the book for details :)

• Businesses desire privatized/protected profits and socialized losses.
• Ron Paul: “The seekers of bailouts condemn their opponents as stubborn and selfish ideologues. Of course, when those wanting the taxpayers’ bailouts were making profits, they were quite content to support the principle that the profits were theirs and they deserved to keep as much as possible as part of the free market philosophy."
• Allows for risk to be passed on to taxpayers. Business want to keep all their profits but pass their losses amongst society’s members (bailouts).
• Deflation is only a threat when you have lots of debt.
• In a deflationary environment, your savings becomes more valuable over time w/o the aid of interest rates. On the flip side, any debt you have becomes more difficult to pay off. Thus our massive debt problem both individually and corporately as a nation creates large opposition to sound fiscal policy in general, and deflation in particular.
• Savers are cheated by low interest rates and opposition to deflation.
• Central banks remove the fiscal limits on war.
• A huge barrier to initiating and maintaining wars is removed since wars no longer must be financed by direct taxation. Rather, a secret inflationary tax devaluing money through increasing the money supply can be utilized.
• Only 21% of World War I was financed by direct taxation. The rest by bond issuing with the federal government serving as lender of last resort (no risk of failing) and increased money supply.
• Politicians do not need to balance budgets because our central bank can print money. 
• They can pass their debt laden agenda through, and pay for it through increasing the money supply. This results in a hidden inflationary tax with the poor and middle class bearing the greatest burden by receiving funds the last.
• State governments cannot print money, thus we have 50 case studies of governments operating without being able to increase the money supply (some better than others). We also have all the local governments. They must sell bonds with inherent, market driven risk, to acquire debt, just like the rest of us. (more my thoughts than Dr. Paul’s)
• Although it may take time, the market always wins.
• Even if it requires the market to go underground.
• We have created a system with incentives of spending and debt accumulation as inflation rewards those with a negative networth (like me!) by making their debt cheaper to repay.
• We want the government to guarantee security not liberty.
• We have chosen vast safety nets (food assistance, subsidized housing, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment, etc.) over the freedom to spend the fruits of our labor as we choose.
• Private banking (no FDIC or lender of last resort)
• Would create a market for private deposit insurance and individuals would spread their deposits amongst multiple banks (diversification).
• More paperwork: yes; bank bailouts and too big to fail: no
• Easier to print money then to directly tax
• People don’t like to be taxed :)
• Commodity and service prices adjust based on existing money supply, the money supply does NOT need to be adjusted to change prices.
• Allow private minters and currency systems.
• Anyone can get into the business of money production thus creating competition.
• Markets already exist for currency conversions
• Not sure why this hasn't happened yet.
• 2014 Update: Bitcoin is attempting to emerge as an alternative currency

To who would I recommend this book?

• Those interested in economic policy, who have questions about why Ben Bernake or the Federal reserve chairman is on the news, and who question the government’s role on money management.

To who would I not recommend this book?

• Those with limited time to read. There are more influential and timely books if pressed for reading. Such as Mark Driscoll’s Doctrine.

End the Fed is a book written at a literary level for the masses, not just economic professors. As such, I believe Dr. Paul delivers timely and well articulated arguments for the negative consequences of fiat money managed by the Federal Reserve. A must read by all but the most time constrained readers.

Next Week's Topic: Blog Map