Thursday, January 1, 2015

Fantasy Football 2014 Recap

The 2014 Fantasy Football season went as anticipated and outlined in my 2014 Draft Recap post. Unproven RBs and injuries hamstrung my efforts in my 12 team LDF league, while a deep bench propelled me to victory in my 8 team Bemidji league.


Goal overview -
As set in 2014 Draft Prep post, I was able to achieve two out of three goals, however I fell short of achieving one goal in my LDF league:
  1. Make playoffs in all leagues
    • Went 2/2
  2. Have a 59% overall win rate amongst all leagues
    • 16-11 combined record (59% win rate)
  3. Finish in the top half of each league with median total weekly points
    • Bemidji: 1/8; LDF: 9/12


While I was able to meet the majority of my goals, I am more interested in the process as opposed to the outcome of achieving my goals. I have listed an analysis of my process on both leagues below.

Bemidji Recap - 8 team, 2 QB, ppr (actual draft)

Record: 10-4 (1st place); 1st in total points
  • As predicted had a very solid team (2014 Draft Recap)
    • Scored the most points in 7 out of 16 weeks and top 3 in points in 14/16 weeks
    • Won 9 out of 10 games to end the season
  • Lost only Cruz and Ellington to injuries
    • Also Floyd and Fitzgerald with the Carson Palmer injury
    • Gronk stayed health all year!
  • Picking up T.Y. Hilton, C.J. Anderson, and Beckham really helped
    • Don’t feel as bad about Beckham as I lost Cruz for the year
  • Disappointing year by Stafford
    • Injury to Calvin Johnson hurt him. A switch in offensive coordinators likely was a setback as well. Difficult to tell. I thought the addition of an actual 2nd receiver in Golden Tate would have helped more. Only 22 TD passes. 5 less than Flacco and Tannehill.
  • Difficult schedule as I had the 2nd most points scored against me
  • Looking at the draft board, as much as I want to say I should have taken Antonio Brown, I simply had Stafford ranked in a Tier of his own between the Top 3 and 5 through 17 QBs. I knew I could wait on RB which left me with choosing between a third straight WR (already drafted Calvin and Dez) and a QB.
    • I valued flexibility over straight value and I believe this benefited me by being able to take Gronk at 53 overall rather than feeling squeezed to take my first QB.
  • Too many good players left on the board allowed me to have a crazy bench in Pierre Thomas, Golden Tate, Rashad Jennings, Michael Floyd
  • One mistake was taking a Bill Belichick RB in Vereen over a main RB in Bell

LDF Recap - 12 team, 2 keeper, non-ppr

Record: 6-7 (8th); 9th in total points
  • Suffered regular season woes with injuries to Montee Ball, Calvin Johnson, Rashad Jennings, Carson Palmer (large effect on Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington), and lingering injury to Andre Ellington
  • Difficult year after missing on Ball, Patterson, Crabtree and injuries to Ellington, Jennings, Johnson, Floyd
  • I had picked up Ronnie Hillman, but C.J. Anderson was the Denver RB I needed. I knew one was going to have a great year. I just missed twice :/
  • Missed players during draft
    • T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, DeSean Jackson
  • Not a lot of opportunities. I liked T.Y. Hilton, but I liked Crabtree and Floyd better and I would have had a difficult time drafting Hilton above these two.
    • C.J. Anderson and Beckham Jr. were both drafted
  • Lost first round playoff game after not starting Baldwin against Philadelphia. Instead I started an injured Rashad Jennings at Tennessee :(

General Player Recap -
  • Rookie WRs performed very well
    • Beckham, Evans, Benjamin, Cooks, and to a degree Watkins
  • 2nd year RBs performed well
    • Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Bell
  • Top level players all performed relatively well
    • Some regression with McCoy, Graham, and Brandon Marshall

Proposed Draft Changes -
  • I am well satisfied with my drafting process and see little need for change. This is promising as 2014 was my 11th year of drafting teams.
  • In snake type drafts, I believe I thrive on have middle picks rather than end picks. This allows me to better gauge who will be available for my next pick.
    • I plan to continue trying to trade into middle picks going forward.
  • I was pleased with trading out of the early round picks and drafting a WR or QB in the 1st round. I believe I will continue to do this as well.
  • I will revert back to staying away from Bill Belichick running backs. I thought this was the year for Vereen to dominate ppr leagues, but was left disappointed.

I remain well pleased with my current approach to fantasy football and plan to continue outlining my approach in future posts (Part I). After watching a total of three games in 2014, I also firmly believe one does not need to watch games to win their fantasy football league. With another year in the books, I look forward to enjoying three great weeks of playoff football. I predict the Seattle Seahawks repeat as champions with a 4 point victory over the Denver Broncos.


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