I believe all endeavors should start with SMART goals prior to any action. QAPI should then follow all significant actions. This includes fantasy football, especially the draft. I believe the sooner to an event QAPI is utilized, the more fruitful the process. Thus, following each draft I carve out two ~15 minute sessions to analyze my draft performance. Ideally I will write initial thoughts within 1 hour of finishing the draft and further review my performance the next day. When utilizing QAPI, it is important to review the processes and overall system of decision making, not just the outcomes. We are interested in the means to the end, not the end. Perfect the means, and the end result (Fantasy Football Championship) will follow.
I adamantly support applying QAPI to fantasy football drafts as it is an efficient method of future improvement. I ask myself multiple, open-ended questions:
- What are my initial impressions/thoughts?
- What went according to plan?
- What was unexpected?
- How did I respond to unexpected events?
- Why did I respond in this manner?
- How can I better prepare for these in the future?
- What went well?
- What went poorly?
- What was just plain ugly?
- What would I do the same?
- What, if given the same set of circumstances, would I do differently?
- What changes can be made to improve performance in the future?
- What do I consider keys to success?
- Summary/Final Thoughts
I have outlined my 2013 draft analysis QAPI in the following format:
- Players who are struggling/breaking out 3 weeks into season with thoughts of how to anticipate these in the future
- Draft Analysis – the good, bad, ugly, and final thoughts
- Conclusion
Surprises -
Struggling -
- Tom Brady
- Amendola and Gronk injuries have dragged on
- C.J. Spiller
- New coaching staff, new QB, defenses stacking the box
- Did have 1600+ yards with a 6.0 YPC average last year. I still haven’t given up hope on Spiller
- RBs in general: Ray Rice, Spiller, T-Rich, Ridley, Morris, Foster, CJ, S-Jax
- Haven’t given up hope on any of these yet. Although I was never high on Morris, I would definitely consider trading for him at this point
- New York Giants
- General decline in recent years, but unexpected to this degree
- Monitor early declines. If changes are not made during the offseason, momentum may continue driving them further down
- Kenny Britt
- Maybe not a huge surprise, was high risk high reward to begin with
- Lance Moore
- No idea… Too many mouths to feed? If he wasn’t injured I would still give him a chance, but just drop him at this point
- Roddy White
- Injury – trade for this guy if you can get a reasonable value
- Dwayne Bowe
- Even with a great coach and passing scheme with Andy Reid, do apparently need a QB
- Rob Gronkowski
- Prolonged injury
Breaking out -
- Jordan Cameron
- I did see this coming as I picked him up quickly in the preseason. New head coach and offensive coordinator who love TEs. Expected the same from Rob Housler, but high ankle sprain has sidelined Housler
- Pierre Garcon
- Not convinced. Too shaky of QB play
- Jimmy Graham
- Huge stats, more than I would have even expected. Never underestimate elite QBs with elite pass catchers.
- Julius Thomas, DEN TE
- Peyton Manning – NFL is a QB league, anyone on a team with an elite quarterback has their value rise tremendously
- Martellus Bennett
- Not convinced, Cutler has his struggles coupled with poor offense line keeping him in to help with blocking...
Hawkeye League Analysis –
Overview
- RB slide will hurt me as I loaded up with RBs on my first 3 picks
- Steven Jackson fell to #40 overall, Steven Ridley to #46
- Need to hit some fliers on WRs due to going heavy RB and Stafford early in the draft (only drafted 1 WR in first 6 picks)
- I do like Lance Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, and Miles Austin as replacement level players. Thus I feel as if I am deep at replacement level WR, but unfortunately do not have a lot of sleeper WR potential which may hamstring my success
Good
- #1 overall pick, random luck here as I do believe this was the best pick in the draft
- Great value in RBs by being able to start Adrian Peterson (1), C.J. Spiller (16), Trent Richardson (17), and Darren Sproles (48)
- Was able to secure two QBs I am very comfortable starting in Stafford and Eli Manning. I feel Eli Manning at 64th overall was great value
- As mentioned above, very happy with caliber of replacement level WRs.
Bad
- Dwayne Bowe at 33
- Don’t get me wrong, I am very high on Bowe (Draft Plan), however I left Vincent Jackson on the board who probably has both a higher floor and higher ceiling
- Projected Net Loss: 150 yards, 1 TD, 21 points
Ugly
- Steve Smith at 49
- Arghh!!! – I hate myself for this one. Welker is such an easy lock here over Steve Smith, whiffed big time on this one. Got flustered after Reggie Wayne was taken right before me
- Projected net loss: 150 yards, 4 TDs, 39 points
- Missed Jared Cook at 113
- Was overconfident in my ability to secure Cook after 10 TEs had been drafted in an 8 team league
- While ugly it is difficult to predict a projected net loss as we don’t know much about Cook or my two TEs in Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler
- I estimate a 100 yard, 2 TD, 22 point loss here
Final thoughts
- I feel I left a total of 82 points on the board or 5.1 points per week in a 16 game season
- Due to the competitiveness of the league, I project I will finish 5/8 and miss the playoffs. A very poor draft overall considering I believe I had the best pick in the draft at #1 overall
- This is the league I am 0-3 in, may not even be able to finish in top 5…
LDF Draft Analysis
Overview
- As feared, got squeezed on my 57th overall pick (Draft Planning)
- Very interesting draft as I reached for Gronk at 40 overall
- This was not my original plan (originally would have take at 57), but with news Gronk is practicing in full pads, I was unable to pass him up in a low competition league where 8/12 teams make the playoffs. Decided to work towards having a solid second half team rather than first half team as I typically follow.
- Actually waited longer on a QB than originally thought. Was expecting to pickup one at 105 however I left Eli Manning on the board in favor of Josh Gordon. Worked out alright as I ended up with Bradford and Palmer, two QBs I was willing to take a chance on.
- Have since picked up Philip Rivers
- Going to suffer at RB (as expected without having a 2nd RB in the first 4 rounds) as Ivory or Mendenhall is currently my #2. Going to need a break on waivers.
Good
- Huge upside with Gronk
Bad
- No real breakout candidates as was stuck drafting the likes of Mendenhall, Powell, Ingram on my bench to try to get a #2 RB. Was good value in WRs at this point I was forced to pass on to shore up RB position
- Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson
Ugly
- Nothing really ugly about this draft, I did get heckled about waiting so long to take a QB, but I still believe it was best to wait. I actually took the 17th QB off the board for my first QB in a 12 team league. Five other teams had already taken backups…
Final thoughts
- While I do not disagree with any of my picks, I do not like the way the dice fell in this draft. Going back it probably would have been wiser to take Le’Von Bell rather than Ivory. Tough to say though.
- May have left Ingram on the board and taken T.Y. Hilton
- Given I can secure a #2 RB my team should be very solid.
2013 has the looks of a rough year in fantasy football. I have a started out 0-3 in the Hawkeye League and 2-1 in LDF league. A high probability exists of having a second straight year where I fail to make the playoffs. This would put me at making the playoffs in 3/5 leagues in 2012 and 2013 combined. Still better than average, but I believe I should be able to achieve 4/5 or 5/5 playoff bound teams. The key takeaway message from this year’s drafting: preparation is still key. Both drafts went unexpectedly. I feel I was able to effectively adapt well for both situations with the exception of taking Steve Smith over Welker. That one is going to haunt me all year… As showcased above, I strongly recommend utilizing QAPI in both fantasy football as well as other significant endeavors to improve overall performance and future decision making.
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