Fantasy Football Part 1: Draft Day Planning

“Everyone has a plan until they get hit.” – Mike Tyson

Warning: This will be a lengthy blog post compiling a massive amount of information with potentially excruciating detail for some of you. For others, who are like me (nerds and geeks), you may find it enthralling. Due to the length, it will read more like a biology lab report than a blog post :)

If you have never seen the movie Moneyball, I highly recommend it. The man pictured above approaches baseball almost exactly as I approach fantasy football.

The main objective of this post is simply to achieve transparency, and my overall goal of my fantasy football posts is to detail my approach to fantasy football. Thus, I apologize that while I will document who and where I plan to draft, you will have to wait a couple months to read my rational for deciding who to draft where.

House of Prayer League -

League Details: 10 team PPR, above average competition

Standard league with 7 starting roster spots (I do not include DEF/K). Thus the top 70 players off the board (10 teams x 7 roster spots) will be the starting teams. This is a little lower than I like (70), and will result with most teams ending up with a pretty good team.

Draft Position: #4. This is actually my ideal position. I would have been happy with picks 1-7.

General Plan:

• In a league with above average competition, it is likely every team is going to have a weak position (QB, RB, WR, TE). 
• I plan to have a self inflicted weakest spot of RB.
• Jimmy Graham may have great value, I would take in middle of second round

• Lots of good WRs in the middle rounds (3-6) ranging from Fitzgerald to Decker
• Will plan to draft almost all my wide receivers here
• I also believe I have a few good WRs picked out in the late rounds: DHB, Austin Collie, Nate Washington, thus I will err on the side of waiting for WRs

Individual round plan:
Expected: QB1-TE1-RB1-WR1-WR2-WR3-RB2-best available

Numbers in (xx) are the overall pick number:

• 1 (4) – QB (unless Ray Rice falls)
• 2 (17) – Jimmy Graham or best RB
• 3 (24) – RB (DMC, Murray, or better), Gronk, WR 
• Ideally will have QB-TE-RB, would also settle for QB-RB-WR, or Rice-TE-WR
• Again, want 1 RB in first 3 rounds
• 4 (37) – WR (Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Nelson, Nicks, or better)
• 5 (44) – Reggie Bush/WR (Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin)
• 6 (57) – WR/RB (Dez Bryant, Isaac Redman)/Witten (if didn’t get Graham or Gronk)
• If have 3 WRs would look for Redman at this point
• 7 (64) – WR/RB (Steve Johnson, Eric Decker/Isaac Redman, Peyton Hillis)
• 8-13 – Best available WR/RB + 1 backup QB
• 14 – Jared Cook or best available WR/RB
• 15 – Defense (Bills, Patriots, Bengals)
• 16 – Kicker

Ideal Team

1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Jimmy Graham
3) DMC
4) Brandon Marshall
5) Reggie Bush
6) Percy Harvin/Dez Bryant/Erik Decker (this is biggest stretch, need 1 to fall here)
7) Steve Johnson
8) Peyton Hillis

Iowa Hawkeye League –
League Details: 8 team PPR, very high competition, 10 active roster spots = top 80 players drafted (2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex), 6 points per passing TD

Draft Position: ???

• Hoping for position 3-4. As long as I don’t get pick 8 I will be happy though
• At 8th pick you are forced to reach for your second player :/
• Plans set for 1, 4, and 8 position
• Extremely tough draft due to unknown draft position coupled with the high caliber of players across the board.

General Plan:

• QBs highly valued as 16 will be starting and 6 points per passing TD
• Hoping to have 2 of the top 11 QBs
• TEs undervalued as only the top 8 will be starting
• RBs a little undervalued as only forced to start 2 (can play 2 RBs and 5 WRs)

Individual round plans:
Pick 4 -
Expected: QB1-RB1-WR1-WR2-WR3-QB2-WR4-RB2-WR5-RB3-WR6-TE1

Additional round by round details

• 1 (4): QB1
• 2 (13): QB2 (Stafford)/RB1 (forte)
• 3 (20): WR (RB1 if went QB/QB)
• Want 1 RB in the first 3 rounds
• 4 (29): WR (Marshall, Julio Jones, Nicks)
• 5 (36): WR (Nelson, Percy Harvin)
• 6 (45): QB2/ Bush(RB2)/WR
• 7 (52): Bush(RB2)/WR (Decker, Dez)
• 8 (61): WR4
• 9 (68): RB (Hillis/Law Firm/ Brown)
• 10 (77): RB (Kevin Smith)
• 11 (84): Reggie Wayne (Collie w/concussion)
• 12 (93): DHB
• 13 (100): TE1 – Pettigrew/Tamme/Cincy’s TE
• Other targets – Collie, Cincy’s TE, Raschard Jennings, Mike Williams –TB WR, Santana Moss, Nate Washington

Pick 1 -
Expected: RB1-RB2-WR1-WR2-QB1-QB2-WR3-best available

Additional round by round details

• 1 (1): RB1 - Rice
• 2 (16): RB2 (QB if some how Stafford falls here – very outside chance)
• 3 (17): WR1
• 4 (32):WR2
• 5 (33): QB1/WR3 – tough pick here, not sure I want to wait to 48/49 for QBs
• 6 (48): QB1/WR3
• 7 (49): QB2
• 8 (64): WR/RB (best available)
• 9 (65): WR/RB (best available)
• 10 (80):TE1

Pick 8 - 
Tough pick, grab QB or not, depends how much you like Stafford…

Expected: All depends on who falls to me, worst case scenario is I end up with Chris Johnson and Stafford, so:
RB1-QB1-WR1-WR2-QB2-WR3-WR4-best available

Additional round by round details

• 1 (8): QB/Calvin Johnson/Chris Johnson/Stafford
• 2 (9): See above
• 3 (24): WR/RB1
• Again, want 1 RB in first 3 rounds
• 4 (25):WR2
• 5 (40): QB2 - Vick
• 6 (41): WR3
• 7 (56): WR4
• 8 (57): WR5/RB2 – best available
• 9 (72): RB - Donald Brown/Hillis
• 10 (73): WR/RB – best available

Summarizing the above, it is important to have a loose framework allowing for sufficient flexibility such that when you get hit with the unexpected on draft day, you are able to quickly adapt. Plans are largely dependent on individual leagues as shown where I value TEs. I hope by writing this post, it will achieve my goal of increasing the transparency of my approach to fantasy football.

Next week’s topic:  The Role of Government