Fantasy Football Part 2: Draft Recap

Run to the Hillis!, Cook’n up a Pack of Grahams, Here’s my number, Coll-ie maybe.

Every good draft analysis starts with a clever team name. Listed above are names specific to my teams this year, while listed below are just really good ones.

       Forgetting Brandon Marshall                           Burrested Development



  

                      I'm bringing Hasselbeck                                        Henne Given Sunday  



A couple more for good measure :)  - Jersey Leshoure, Wacco for Flaco

In case you aren't familiar with the player names: Click Here

Brandon Marshall - Chicago Bears WR
Plaxico Burress - Former New York Giants and New York Jets WR
Matt Hasselbeck - Tennesse Titans QB
Chad Henne - Jacksonville Jaguars
Mikel Leshoure - Detroit Lions RB
Joe Flacco - Baltimore Ravens QB

I wanted to follow up my previous post on my draft day plan with documenting the outcomes and thoughts of my draft results.


House of Prayer Draft Grades -
Overall: A-
Individual Draft Picks: B+
Team: B+/A- (depending on trades and Benson)

Individual Draft Picks: B+
Flaws -

• Forgot RB roster cap
• No real damage to team
• Forgot IR spots
• Some damage – Mendenhall, Matthews
• Poor research on Pittsburgh backfield
• Thought Jonathon Dwyer was out indefinitely with foot injury from last year
• Green-Ellis was still on the board
• Forgot Nate Washington
• Would have taken Jared Cook anyways
• Not really a flaw but didn't have the opportunity to grab any draft steals

Strenths -

• Good value at most every pick (exception being Rounds 1 and 2 where it is difficult to get good value, can really only lose value)
• Plan executed to perfection, planned on going QB-TE (graham)-RB (DMC, Murray)-WR-WR-RB-WR(switched these two due to being able to wait on RBs)-then value
• I got every later round player I wanted given the roster spot limitations
• Feel as if Jennings and Nelson fell to me
• Only one regret, would draft everything else the same today
• I don’t like Redman, I didn’t realize Dwyer was so close to being back, would have taken Law Firm (Green-Ellis)

Team: B+/A- (insert picture of GB Packers logo)
Flaws -

• 4 GB packers: Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, Benson
• RB2 may be a little shaky, this was expected though

Strengths -

• Good balance of risky and reliable players
• Very strong at WR

Miscellaneous –

• Toughest Pick: Round 5 – Jordy Nelson
• Favorite Pick: Round 11 – Cedric Benson
• This could really give my team a huge boost if Benson is starter
• Starks with turf toe
• Biggest Upside: Round 14 – Jared Cook
• If Cook, in a contract year, with a rookie QB, can explode to become the 3rd best TE behind Graham and Gronk, I will be able to trade Graham for a great player
• Biggest Regret: Round 6 – Isaac Redman
• Should have taken Law Firm :/

Draft Steals –

• Ryan Matthews, Michael Vick, Roddy White

Good Value:

• Forte, Eli Manning, Donald Brown, DMC, Jennings, Benson, Mendenhall (IR spot), Chris Johnson, Law Firm, Steven Jackson

Hawkeye Draft Grades –

Overall: A

Individual Draft Picks: A-

Team: A-

Individual Draft Picks: A-

Flaws -

• Got stuck with 8th draft position, my one fear heading into the draft...
• Missed Kevin Smith, should have taken him instead of Nate Washington
• Had a real freak out moment in Round 10. Couldn't decide between Hillis or Willis.
• Made the right choice, but didn’t know until after I took Hillis :/

Strengths -

• Plan went to perfection. I think I took every player/position in my plan.
• Ended up with some good value picks in a very tough draft with Bush, Harvin, and Rashad Jennings

Team: A-

My Picks

• Chris Johnson (8)
• Matthew Stafford (9)
• Roddy White (24)
• Brandon Marshall (25)
• Rivers (40) - Although no real value, felt really good about getting Rivers here
• Harvin (41) - Some value, also some risk
• Bush (56) - I feel Bush has some value here
• Pettigrew (79) - Being on the end probably hurt me here as I really wanted Pettigrew, but didn’t think he would make it back to me in 16 picks. Thus a little bit of a reach, but I still think I got good value here.
• Floyd (89) - Vincent Brown out for first half of the season
• When this guy is health he can play. I expect to have him for ~8 games this year and he could be big those 8 games.
• Jennings (105) – see above
• Daniel Thomas (120) - Handcuff to Bush
• Collie (121) - He unfortunately just got a concussion but I had to grab him here, just way too much upside in a ppr league. This guy has a crazy high ceiling.

Flaws -

• Bench seems a little weak
• Although I assume with 10 starting roster spots and only 7 bench spots it’s going to seem weak
• A little weak on RBs
• I basically need MJD to quit and then I should be good 
• Although not really a flaw due to my terrible draft position (8), I am carrying more risk than I would prefer (Stafford, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush)
• I typically like my risky picks to come later in the draft, not 3 in the first 60 overall picks…

Stengths -

• Extremely happy with my starting lineup
• If my weakest link is Peyton Hillis, who may go for 1000+ all purpose yards and double digit TDs, I should be set.

Miscellaneous –

• Toughest Pick: Round 10 – Peyton Hillis
• Favorite Pick: Round 6 – Percy Harvin
• The man had 1300 all purpose yards last year with 87 receptions
• He had 100 combined targets + rushing attempts the last 9 games of the season, the most of any player. 
• Second Place
  
  Wes Welker - 74 total targets + rushing attempts

Biggest Upside: Round 14 – Rashad Jennings

• Currently the Jags #1 RB

Biggest Regret: Round 13 – Nate Washington

• Not that I don’t like Nate Washington, just wish I would have grabbed Kevin Smith instead

Immediate afterthoughts -

• Ended up with my most feared draft position: 8 :/
• My season basically rests on how well Stafford and Chris Johnson perform
• Didn’t feel as if I had to reach very much even on the end of the draft, missed out on a couple players but overall felt pretty good
• RBs are definitely weak, was hoping to pick up Donald Brown or Jonathon Stewart but missed both
• Really happy where I got Rashad Jennings, I think he may be starting
• As expected, no real draft steals due to high caliber of players

In depth analysis thoughts –

• As expected, very few chances to gain value, can really only lose value
• Extremely happy I went Hillis over Willis
• Decker as WR thus try to avoid having QB/WR and RB on same team
• I am still really high on Hillis, goal line back that catches balls and will split carries pretty evenly with Charles
• Reaches
• Romo (16)
• Gates (28)
• Cutler (45)
• Value picks
• Jennings (35)
• Lots of people down on him this year…
• Harvin (41)
• Last of the WRs I was really happy with
• Bush (56)
• McGahee (79)
• Stewart (98)
• Rashad Jennings (105)
• Anyone else think MJD won’t start the first 4 games?
• Kevin Smith (114)
• Starting RB that will catch a lot of balls, not sure how he made it here

For completeness sake, I am playing in a third league (Warhawks). It is a 12 man keeper league (2 keepers) where 8 teams make the playoffs and has a low to mid level of competition with lower participation than the two leagues above.

Click here for my team.

Draft Grades –
Overall: A
Individual Draft Picks: A-
Team: A-


Quick plan overview: I traded Arian Foster for Calvin Johnson and thus ended up keeping Calvin and Forte. Plan was to grab injured players (Ryan Matthews, Jason Witten) if available as I am not worried about making the playoffs. 

Hindsight: Underestimated level of competition. I thought I could wait to pickup some WRs I was targeting (Darius Heyward-Bey, Reggie Wayne, Lance Moore) and load up on some RBs, but ended up getting squeezed on WRs :/.

Taken as a whole, I consider my 2012 drafting of being consistent with my expectations. With the exception of valuing Isaac Redman far too high (I was basing my ranking on the assumption Jonathan Dwyer would be out a few weeks in the regular season), I felt I performed an adequate amount of research to formulate a strong draft plan. Following the creation of my various draft plans, I believe they were executed almost to perfection, again with only one exception: I underestimated the level of competition in the Warhawk league resulting in me have poor WRs on my bench.

My goal of the 2012 fantasy football is to win > 60% of my matchups and finish in the top half of each league. This will result in a record of 23-16 among my leagues with a projected ending regular season record of 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6.

I hope you have enjoyed reading my post-draft analysis of fantasy football. I plan to provide an update in ~4 weeks with my current record and any significant roster moves.


Next week’s topic: Basic level of care

My Voting Issues

What are you passionate about? What, if no longer allowed, would propel you to action? The United States spends ~$55 billion on alcohol each year. What would you do if the government outlawed the consumption of alcohol? Would you invest your own time, energy, and resources to overturn such a ruling?

Do you agree the federal government should protect its children’s safety, whether from foreign or domestic threats regardless of a parent’s or child’s consent?

The most popular sport in America is football. If you answered yes to the question of children’s safety, the government should prohibit many children’s sporting events, especially football. Furthermore, what if the government outlawed the game of football entirely? Again, would you invest your own time, energy, and resources to overturn such a ruling?

Your answers to these questions will likely reflect how you prioritize your voting issues. Here are my voting issues ranked in order of most to least important, all subject to change of course :)

1. Small government/freedom
• Often, the bigger a government, the less freedom its citizens have
2. Fiscal Responsibility/National Debt
• Includes balancing of budget, highly correlated with economic principles and small government
3. Tax Policy
• Who do we tax? How much do we tax? What do we tax?
4. Economic principles
• How, if at all, can the federal government create a positive economic environment?
5. Illegal immigration
6. Foreign policy

Why Voting Issues?
Might it make more sense to:

1. Determine what we believe about individual issues
2. Rank issues in order of individual importance
3. Vote for candidates/political parties based on order of issue importance, understanding that unless you yourself are running for office, there is a small chance any candidate will share your views on all political issues

Rather than:

1. Pick a candidate or political party to support
2. Adopt party (or candidate) lines on all political issues

In my limited experience, the majority of voters are single issue voters. For example, if a single issue voter ranks abortion as their highest priority, they will side with any candidate who share’s their preference on abortion regardless of the candidate's (or political party’s) stance on numerous other issues.

Thus, simply speaking about candidates and/or political parties is a poor representation of how a majority of voters feel about peripheral issues. This showcases the benefits of simply talking about issues rather than candidates/political parties.

Personal Example

Borrowing a line from one of my good friends, I consider myself a fiscal conservative and social moderate.  I prefer a small government, but have only minor interest in social issues (abortion, gay marriage, stem cells, etc.). If a discussion was limited simply to political parties, I would be considered a conservative on fiscal issues and tend to be liberal with social issues.

Additionally, I believe in many instances, narrowing one’s focus to a single issue as compared to whole political party stances, most of us, myself included, are less likely to take offense. Therefore an environment more favorable to discussion and open communication may be achieved by limiting the topic to a single issue.

It is my hope you will take the time to thoughtfully consider your beliefs on a variety of issues. As before, I encourage (and would greatly appreciate) you to email me your list of voting issues from most to least important. Please use the subject heading: My Voting Issues. 

Next week’s topic: Fantasy Football Part 2: Draft Analysis