Thursday, August 29, 2013

Book Review III: A Foreign Policy of Freedom

Overall Rating: 4.5/5 

Estimated Reading Time: 10 hours (371 pages, ~1.5 minutes / page)

Why I choose to read:
  • 2012 presidential primary debates spurred my interest in foreign policy due to controversy on Israel-Iran tensions.
    • Desire to hear Ron Paul’s stance on foreign policy from the horse’s mouth, not from secondary media outlets.
  • Read Ron Paul’s The Revolution and End the Fed further raising my interest in understanding Ron Paul’s noninterventionist beliefs.
  • Numerous foreign events in recent times:
    • Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Israel, Korean Peninsula, G-7, G-20, United Nations, NATO
  • Underdeveloped political area of mine.


Background:
  • Subject
    • Ron Paul’s beliefs and insights into America’s foreign policy. More specifically, an in depth study of Ron Paul’s support of noninterventionist foreign policy.
  • Year Written: 1997
  • Cultural Context
    • 6 years post Gulf War
    • Soviet Union dissolved in 1991
      • Cold War


Author Details:
  • Promoter of Austrian Economics
    • Ludwig von Mises
    • Murray Rothbard
  • Libertarian platform
  • Ron Paul Channel
    • Online video platform with episodes of Ron Paul’s views on current and controversial issues
  • Texas senator for 25 years
  • Detailed Biographys


Reflections:
What I appreciated -
  • Increased my understanding of how our foreign policy is perceived worldwide.
  • Makes me extremely frustrated with the wasted resources (people, money) and harm to citizens of both our own country and other countries.
  • Increased sympathy for Ron Paul. His steadfastness in holding to his beliefs in the face of misrepresentation and malignment by others is noteworthy.
  • Has tried so hard to steer our country away from foolish decisions with few if any results. I feel we are now reaping the fruit of our planting in the 21st century with 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Korea, China, etc.
    • It is no wonder why Ron Paul receives more donations from military members and their families than any other candidate.
  • Free pdf of entire book at Ludwig von Mises Institute
Shortcomings -
  • Due to publication date of 1997, has missed a number of foreign affairs in the last 15 years.
    • Would have been very interesting to hear how these events fit into Ron Paul’s framework.


Key Messages:
  • Ron Paul believes in policy of armed neutrality (linked with free trade and strong defense)
  • A policy of non-intervention would make America stronger, wealthier, more influential, and a respected beacon of liberty
  • Giveaway programs (foreign aid) and trade barriers (tariffs) create contempt, hostility, national debt, and decrease American business competitiveness
  • Giving foreign aid for peaceful purposes (humanitarian aid) allows countries to free up their own limited capital for military purposes
  • Treating our enemy’s enemy as friends is short lived
  • 60% of our military budget is being spent on the defense of other nations (1997)
  • In an attempt to balance interests we anger all sides
  • By trying to support both sides we alienate both sides
  • When one person can initiate war (president), a republic no longer exists
  • The president may be commander in chief, but Congress authorizes funding, no funding = no foreign intervention
    • Waging war and ratifying treaties is a legislative function, not executive
  • Out of political fear, Congress relinquished/transferred its war declaring power to the president
  • In the end, the economic consequences of world domination will dictate our policies
  • The demand to sacrifice liberty at home to promote freedom and democracy abroad rings hollow
    • Hypocritical to use outside force to achieve freedom
    • Economic law eventually overcomes politicians deceit
    • Seems ironic we have been allies with Sadaam, Osama, and the Islamists in Iran
    • Noninterventionists are misrepresented as isolationists, however the consequences of interventionist polices actually lead to isolationism
      • Decreased allies, increased enemies, worsened economic conditions
  • Opposing continuing wars is not a lack of support for the troops, in many ways it is supporting them by bring them home to their families
  • Henry Grady Weaver:
"Most of the major ills of the world have been caused by well-meaning people who ignored the principle of individual freedom, except as applied to themselves, and who were obsessed with fanatical zeal to improve the lot of mankind-in-the-mass through some pet formula of their own. The harm done by ordinary criminals, murderers, gangsters, and thieves is negligible in comparison with the agony inflicted upon human beings by the professional do-gooders, who attempt to set themselves up as gods on earth and who would ruthlessly force their views on all others with the abiding assurance that the end justifies the means."
  • Rather than democrat or republican should use terms libertarian and socialist as both democrats and republicans support a mix of both libertarian and socialist policies
  • We sacrifice future wealth for present indulgence at the expense of individual liberty
    • The debtor is slave to the lender
  • Bad ideas, whether promoted by men of bad or good intentions will produce bad results
  • Wars are won with sound economics (my thought)
  • Ron Paul was for responding to 9/11 with intelligent military force
  • Before committing to a war, success, our enemy, and our exit strategy should all be defined and approved by Congress
  • Should avoid entangling alliances and have an exit strategy for all alliances
  • War is often built around money (like everything else) rather than our nation’s security
  • Ron Paul is very much against the UN/NATO (decreases America’s sovereignty)
  • Thomas Jefferson said “peace, commerce, honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none”
  • The United States should strive to be an example to other nations such that foreign peoples/governments will enact their own change outside of U.S. influence
  • War results in innocent people dying and damaged economies
  •  “A government big enough to give you everything is big enough to take it all away”
    • David Crocket
  • We support a military takeover as long as the new dictator does as we tell him
  • To dismiss terrorism as a result of Muslim’s hating us because we are rich and free is a fraud
  • Preemptive wars for humanitarian causes could be privately funded and manned
    • LOVE this idea!
  • Cannot fund both foreign entanglements and domestic entitlements
  • Supports move towards localized government and weak central government
  • Elections are a consequence (good) of freedom; freedom is achieved first and then elections
  • Using force contradicts the moral foundation of a free society


To who would I recommend reading?
  • Everyone. Our personal and country’s safety, freedom, peace, and prosperity is at risk
  • Especially young and middle-aged as we bear the greatest human and financial cost

To who would I not recommend reading?
  • Ron Paul
  • Those who have read it in the last 10 years
  • Read these books first:
    • Doctrine - Driscoll
    • Economics in One Lesson – Hazlitt


I believe A Foreign Policy of Freedom is one of Ron Paul’s greatest works. It is a shame it has not garnered greater attention, especially in light of recent foreign conflicts, largely the outcomes of seeds sown long ago. I agree with Ron Paul, a policy of non-intervention would make America stronger, wealthier, more influential, and a respected beacon of liberty. All things I believe all people would agree are worth striving for.


Next Post Topic: Fantasy Football: 2013 Draft Recap

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Fantasy Football 2013: Draft Planning

After a disappointing year of fantasy football in 2012 where I failed to make the playoffs in 1 of my 3 leagues, I will be hoping to rebound with a better performance in 2013. Below I will layout my flexible blueprint of how I plan to accomplish my self-promoted road to the playoffs without watch any games method.

Today's post is broken down into an initial disclaimer, followed by a separate strategy for both of my leagues, and concludes with a list of what I perceive as undervalued and overvalued players based on ESPN average draft position (ADP).

Disclaimer -
Please see "How to win your league without watching games" to see how important the format and scoring system is to proper player valuation. This is especially important in my lists of undervalued, overvalued, and sleeper lists. Again, it is essential you modify player valuations based on league format and scoring system. Do not ignore this!


Hawkeye League -
  • 8 team, 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 DST, ppr, 6 point TD passes, 4 teams make playoffs, bonuses for 100 rushing/receiving yards, 300 for pass yards
  • RBs and TEs less valuable, QBs and WRs more valuable
  • 1st pick
    • 1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49, 64, 65, 80, 81, 96, 97, 112, 113
  • General strategy
    • Wait on TE
      • I cannot see myself drafting a TE before the end of the draft. I would take Graham at 32 and Gronk at 48 but I do not see there being any chance either of these two would get to me at these spots.
        • Problem of snake type drafts and reason I support auction formats.
      • Finley, Cook, Myers, Bennent are excellent replacements
        • Even longer fliers in Fred Davis, Jordan Cameron, Rob Housler
    • Want 1 QB being Eli Manning or better, not opposed to taking 2 QBs if value is there.
      • Unlikely Brees/Rodgers will fall to 16, I have Peyton as my 18th overall player thus will miss out on Peyton.
      • Would take Stafford/Ryan/Brady at 33
        • May be a decent chance I hit one of these
    • While I love that I will get Adrian Peterson, I do not like being on the ends of a snake draft. It is nice that it is only an 8 team league rather than a 12 team league and I will only be waiting 15 spots between selections as opposed to 23 in a 12 team draft.
      • I also think there is a lot of value in the first 16 picks, being the first pick gives me the best chance at acquiring 3 great players.
        • In fact I think if given the option I would take the #1 pick this year, talk about high expectations, my draft to lose!
    • Safe WRs look to be gone by pick 55, thus will ideally have picked up 3-4 quality WRs after my 49th pick (2-3 RBs, 1 QB, 3-4 WRs)
      • 7 total picks (1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49)
    • Difficult to project exactly who will be available after the first 5 rounds. I do plan to have a minimum of 3 RBs after my 65th pick
      • Would be targeting Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Shane Vereen, Le’Veon Bell (worst case scenario)
    • I am comfortable with a lot of WR fliers thus I am most willing to punt on WRs.
      • Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, Steve Johnson, Michael Floyd
        • All these I think can serve as serviceable WRs who would not surprise me to eclipse 1000 yards and 6 TDs
    • Also okay with have 1 questionable starting QB.
      • I like Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Michael Vick, and Sam Bradford if I am able to bypass a 2nd QB earlier in the draft in favor of good value at another position.
  • Draft Plan
    • Keep plans simple and flexible, weird things seem to always happen in drafts :)
    • RB/WR/RB/QB/WR/WR/WR
      • AP/A.J. Green/Forte/Stafford/Fitzgerald/Bowe/Wayne
    • Will be looking to take a QB after 49 if Eli Manning or better is available. Otherwise plan to wait on 2nd QB until essentially end of draft.
    • As for TE, will again wait to essentially the end of the draft.
    • Fill in RBs/WRs in between.

LDF -
  • 12 team, 2 keeper, standard scoring with 8 teams making playoffs
  • Following last year’s trend I traded up for keepers, trading Matt Forte and the 112th overall pick for C.J. Spiller and the 133rd overall pick.
    • I will also be keeping Calvin Johnson

  • Pick 9
    • 33, 40, 57, 64, 81, 88, 105, 129, 133, 136, 153, 160, 177, 184
  • Very difficult draft to predict as later rounds will be very difficult to know who will be there (rationale for doing mock drafts)
  • As in Hawkeye League, I will be planning on punting TEs and QBs
  • TEs
    • Would take Graham (kept) at 40 or Gronk at 57, but unlikely either gets to those spots.
  • QBs
    • 7 QBs were kept (including Stafford) meaning there will be some good players at pick 33 :)
    • I would take Matt Ryan (and Stafford if would have been available) at 57, probably unlikely Ryan would ever fall to 57 though
    • Thus plan will be to take a QB immediately before teams start taking their backup QB which will probably be in the 9th-11th rounds at the earliest, or picks 105 - 136.
      • Will grab Luck/Wilson/Kaepernick at 105 or whoever is left at 136
  • RBs
    • All depends on value, plan have 2 after my 40th pick
      • From mock draft basically need 2 by 40 unless a stellar WR is still on the board such as Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, or Larry Fitzgerald
    • Will depend on value for my 64th pick if I end up waiting until 81 to secure my 3rd RB or take at 64
  • WRs
    • I will plan to fill in WRs when value does not exist at other positions as I feel WRs are the deepest later in the draft.
    • As in Hawkeye League, I feel WR dropoff at 55, makes for a difficult 57th pick
  • Overall
    • Unlikely I take anything other than a RB or WR before my QB at 105 :)
  • Based on players remaining, worst case scenario is Chris Johnson at 33 and Bowe/Amendola at 40
    • Unfortunately am 1 pick off of having L-Fitz, V-Jax, or Andre Johnson guaranteed at 40.


Player Valuations -
Format:
  • Player Name (ESPN Average Draft Position (##))
    • Notes
    • I would take ahead (or would rather take) of: ____________

Undervalued -

Overvalued -

Sleepers -

It is my hope the above two case examples provide real time and real world studies of my fantasy football methodology. As in 2012 I will provide a post-draft, mid-year, and year end recap. 


Next Post Topic: Book Review III

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Sabbatical #2: 4 Year Anniversary!

Today marks the 4 year anniversary of being married to my beautiful bride and wonderful wife:

For our 4 year anniversary, we spent the long weekend golfing, biking, and touring Baxter/Brainerd Minnesota.


I plan to finish out the end of the summer with a couple posts discussing fantasy football and then resume public assistance program topics starting in the fall.