Fantasy Football 2014: Draft Recap

A fantasy football draft is akin to building a house and the season a time of weathering. Time will tell if I built a house of straw, sticks, or bricks. My initial impression is my planning, preparation, and discipline enabled me to build a brick house to endure the winds of injuries, suspensions, depth chart changes, and a world of unknowns.

Please refer to Draft Prep for league details and draft strategy.

LDF -

Overall: A

• Missed on Brandon Cooks

Individual Picks: A-

• Minor mistake in round 10 (Cooks)

Team: A-

• A little too much risk with young RBs

Good:

• First 7 rounds went as good as could be expected
• Pulled trigger on Patterson at 37 overall.
• Patterson highlights the need to know your league’s scoring system. I see lots of mediocre WRs between picks 30 and 60. This league is non-ppr, gives points for kickoff returns and punt returns, and allows for 2 keepers per year. All of these factors increase Patterson’s value.
• Took value when it fell to me (Brady at 79 overall)
• Solid RB core with Ball, Ellington, and Jennings

Bad:

• Took Mark Ingram (who I like) rather than Brandon Cooks (who I really like). The points for return yards and keeper potential make Cooks a better option at 109.

Ugly:

• Teams left without RBs
• 1 team forced to start Sankey with no third. Another starting Lamar Miller with no backup (prior to Moreno injury), a third team starting Joique Bell with Mike Tolbert as third
• I have Heath Miller as my TE. I would have preferred better, however, I made the decision to trade for one later
• Out of my control but I lost Andre Williams as a handcuff to Jennings prior to my pick at 108

Final thoughts:

• Lots of risk in unknown players: Ball, Ellington, Patterson, Rashad Jennings  
• I need to remember the majority of people take a backup TE and take my starting TE earlier in the draft

Bemidji -

Overall: A+

• Stacked team. I will be shocked if I don’t make the playoffs. I anticipate a 55% win rate in non-bye weeks and a 60% win rate during bye weeks as my bench is amazing (Ellington, Rashad Jennings, Michael Floyd, Wright, Pierre Thomas)

Individual Picks: A+

• Limiting to factors in my control, I would not have done a single pick different.

Team: A+

• Difference makers in Calvin, Dez, Murray, Stafford, and Gronk. Additionally, I have a very deep bench that should allow me to make and have a small edge in the playoffs.

Good

• Every pick starting in round 7 (overall pick 53) I was saying, “how in the world is this player still here.”
• Gronk, Brady, Ellington, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Pierre Thomas, Golden Tate, Rashad Jennings, Roethlisberger, Cooks

Bad

• Inaugural year of the league. Rule voting left rosters with only 1 flex position (rather than 2). A meager 72 skill position players (QB, RB, WR) are started each week. This means every team is stacked to some degree.
• Lots of overlapping players – 3 patriots, 2 Lions, 2 NYG, 2 Cardinals, 2 Cowboys
• Fortunately none of these teams share bye weeks

Ugly

• 6 kickers taken before the final 2 rounds
• Too many good players left on the waiver wire will bail out the teams who drafted poorly
• Kelvin Benjamin, Reuban Randle, Sankey, Steven Jackson, Carlos Hyde, Justin Hunter, Boykin
• After the first 2 weeks does not seem many of these are that great…
• Although more on the wire: Gerhart, Terrance West, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller, Zac Stacey, Jeremy Hill
• Someone dropped T.Y. Hilton who is tied for 5th in targets after week 2. As much as I like Cooks, I had to drop Cooks to pickup Hilton.

Final Thoughts

• 1 pick away from landing Antonio Brown at pick 28 (4th round) 
• Taking Stafford at 21 overall (3rd round) was my least favorite selection. Part of me wishes I went Antonio Brown. I could have chosen to roll the dice with Brown and hoped Stafford fell back to me. I will never know. I think Stafford was the safer pick rather than going 3 straight WRs (consistent with valuing flexibility as discussed in Draft Prep). 
• Taking Stafford still allows me to rotate Cruz, Michael Floyd, Wright, and Golden Tate in my WR3 and Flex position.

While I felt and still feel great about my drafts, results after 2 weeks have been okay:

Overall Record: 2-2

• Bemidji League: 1-1
• Week 1: Scored 188 points, second most in the league and lost.
• Week 2: Scored 147 points, 4/8 in the league and won thanks in large part to opposing team having both Charles and A.J. Green who were injured
• LDF: 1-1
• Week 1: Won my LDF league by scoring 116.5 points (3/12 teams in total points).
• Week 2: Put up 64 points, the least in the league...

Although I am off to an okay start, there are many more weeks and headlines to shake things up. I anticipate my deep benches will allow me to hit my stride during the 9 weeks teams have their bye weeks and will reveal who has houses built of straw, sticks, or bricks.

Next Post Topic: Minimum Wage Part V: Politicians, Middle Class, and Foreigners

Fantasy Football 2014: Draft Prep

Westbrook kneels at 1 yard line

As in Dungeons and Dragons, fantasy football is not much more than random rolls of the dice. Amongst injuries, suspensions, dog houses (Ridley), poor performances, kneeling at 1 yard line (Westbrook), early TD celebrations (D-Jax), garbage time statistics, and on and on and on. No one knows with what will happen in fantasy football.

• 2013 Exampes: Ray Rice, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon, Zac Stacey, Alshon Jeffrey, Julius Thomas, Keenan Allen

How do we navigate a minefield filled with gems? With knowledge, a plan, and intentionality. Similar to Draft Prep 2013 and Draft Prep 2012, I will outline:

• General strategy
• Goals
• League Overviews and Plan
• Player Valuations
• tldr

General Strategy

Unless otherwise noted, I assume a 10 or 12 team 

league with standard roster sizes and scoring systems.

• Quarterbacks
• I find myself waiting to draft a QB until greater than overall pick 100
• I see little difference between QB 4 and QB 14 (Rivers). I want to draft the 10-14th QB off the board, not the 5-7th.
• I will take a top 3 QB after my top 3 WRs and 5 RBs
• Thus, the earliest I would take a QB would be pick 9.

• Tight Ends
• Unless you have more confidence than me on a breakout TE, I suggest waiting on a TE
• I am confident starting Zach Erzt, Dennis Pitta, Greg Olsen, and Heath Miller as late round TEs leading me to wait even further to draft a TE
• After Graham and Thomas, I have no idea what the rest of the TE ranks will be at the end of the season
• Graham is a stud and I rank him after my top 5 RBs, top 3 WRs and top 3 QBs in a non-ppr, 6 point passing TD league (earliest being 12th overall). In a ppr league or 4 point per passing TD leagues, I suggest taking Graham before the big 3 QBs (or as early as 9th overall).
• Rational
• I think the top 3 QBs can give you 1000 yards and 10 TDs more than replacement which is 100 points. Graham can give you 550 yards and 5 TDs which is 90 points. This makes QBs better, with exception of ppr or 4 point per passing TD leagues where graham will pick up another 20-30 points on his replacement players and/or QBs will only being 80 points better than replacement.
• I like J. Thomas with Decker leaving. However it is difficult for me to warrant getting him around 30th overall. I would be more excited to get him around pick 50.
• I am not touching Gronk unless it’s the 50th+ pick. Even if he does play please remember he is coming off of an ACL tear in week 14.

• Running Backs
• I rarely like my mock drafts unless I have a clear #1 RB. My last #1 RB is Le’Veon Bell being drafted at #18 overall. Morris or Martin my be a low end #1, however I am not excited about these two.
• There are a lot of RB fliers, but the last RB I would be comfortable starting week 1 is Rashad Jennings/Gerhart being drafted at 55 overall on CBS ADP
• This means I plan to get RBs early and often
• Other potential backs are Joique Bell, Richardson, Ben Tate, Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas
• All backs I forsee being startable by midseason. I am not confident at this time to start them week 1 though (exception being Tate who is a ticking time bomb with injuries)

• Wide Receivers
• I want one of my top 8 (ending with Brown), followed by 2 more in the top 60. The last WR I am excited about starting in week 1 is Michael Floyd being drafted at 62 overall.
• There are a lot of WRs I am excited about between picks 70 and 110, but I prefer to watch and wait on these rather than start them week 1.
• Torrey Smith, Colston, Tate, Maclin, Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Eric Decker, Riley Cooper, Reuben Randle

• Positional Recap
• I want at least 3 RBs and 3 WRs in the first 60 overall picks. I also like the values of WRs between picks 70 and 110. Therefore, I find myself ignoring QBs/TEs and drafting A LOT of RBs/WRs.
• In my last mock draft, my first 10 picks were RBs/WRs. I then took Romo and Ertz with my next 2 picks. I have no regrets rounding out my team with Romo and Ertz and love the rest of my team.

• I minimize risk early and gradually increase my risk tolerance as the draft progress
• I believe as Matthew Berry states, "You can’t win your draft in the first few round but you can definitely lose it."
• I stick with safety early and shoot for high risk, high reward in the middle and end of the draft

• Flexibility
• There is a balance between having flexibility and taking the best value player.
• I prefer to keep as balanced as roster as possible. It is frustrating when a great value RB falls to you in the 5th round, but you have taken 3 RBs and 1 WR. 

• Know what positions you can get where
• I know RB falls off a cliff after pick 55. I love the top 8 WRs, however I believe there is good value at WR in the 50-60 range (Cruz, White, Floyd, Garcon) and good flier WRs between 70-110
• After pick 25 there is a notable falloff in both RB and WR safe picks. IMO there are safe QB and TE picks much later (> pick 100)
• As is common, I will select a DST and K in last two rounds of my draft

Goals

1. Make playoffs in all leagues
2. Have a 59% overall win rate amongst all leagues (16-11 combined regular season record for 2 leagues)
3. Finish in the top half of each league with median total weekly points
• Head to head leagues favor consistency more than extreme highs and lows. Median is a better measure of consistency than mean.

League Overviews and Detailed Plans -

LDF Warhawks: 12 team, 2 keeper, standard scoring (6 points per passing TD) with 8 teams making playoffs; low competition

• Due to the low competition I am more willing to take fliers on late season bloomers (Gronk and Gordon last year). This year I probably value Sankey, Monte Ball, Ray Rice, Lamar Miller. Basically anyone that may start slow but end strong.

Ended last year winning the regular season at 9-4

• Many good players with Megatron, Demaryius, Josh Gordon, Zac Stacey, and Monte Ball
• Traded D. Thomas to move up 30 draft picks ranging from 85 overall to 55 overall
• Traded Zac Stacey to move from 36 to 33 and 66 to 57

Draft picks: 33, 37, 55, 57, 60, 79, 108, 109, 132, 133, 156, 157, 180, 181

• 33 – Best Case: Antonio Brown; 2nd: Andre Ellington; 3rd: Alshon Jeffery
• 37 – Best: Andre Ellington; 2nd: Patterson; 3rd: Andre Johnson
• I value Patterson higher due to receiving 1 point for every 25 kickoff return yards (Patterson had 1300+ last year), keeper potential, and liking the WRs with my 3 picks at 55, 57, and 60
• 55, 57, 60 – Best Case: Jennings/Gerhart/Vereen, Floyd, White
• Need a 3/4 or 4/3 split of RBs/WRs
• 79 – Terrance Williams, Golden Tate
• 108, 109 – Best: Romo/Ryan/Brady and TE (Olsen, Ertz)
• If Health Miller and Zach Ertz are both on the board, I may hurt myself here and wait on a TE by grabbing Rueban Randle
• Last 4 picks: RB and WR Fliers: Cooks, Cooper, Greene, Bryce Brown, Doug Baldwin, Kelvin Benjamin, Boykin, Hunter

Concluding Thoughts -

• I need to leave my flex open for my 3 picks between 55 and 60 (which will likely decide the outcome of my year). I will be hoping to get Andre Ellington at 33 or 37 and take a WR with my other pick. This will leave me a 2/2 split of RBs/WRs allowing me great flexibility for my 55, 57, and 60 picks.
• At 79 I may be looking Pitta if no one else is available (Williams, Tate) and then at 108 going QB and Rueben Randle.

Bemidji: 8 team, 1 ppr, 2 QB (4 points per passing TD) with 4 teams making playoffs; 6/10 competition

• Starting Rosters: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE; I will not know my pick until ~15 minutes prior to draft
• I originally had 2 Flex positions to further increase the value of RB/WR, however this was voted down to 1 Flex position which additionally decreases RB values

General Notes -

• RBs have very depressed value with 8 less starting week and ppr adding viable backs in Vereen, Pierre Thomas, CJ0k, and potentially Joique Bell, Sproles, Spiller, Jennings, Gerhart
• I plan to have 1 solid starter ending with Ellington
• QB values go up marginally overall compared to standard leagues. Due to their consistency I bump them up further than their actual value increase. There are 16 QBs I feel comfortable starting week 1 and Palmer is my #17 QB. I plan to have 3 of my top 17 QBs.
• General Draft Strategy
• Early Rounds: After 4 picks I want as many difference makers (top 3 RBs, 3 QBs, 1 TE, 8 WRs) as possible and a RB no worse than Ellington (see rankings below)
• RB: 1 early, 2nd once RBs start thinning out (typically around pick 40), 3rd and 4th I will wait as long as possible before ending with Pierre Thomas, Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Spiller, Richardson, Ray Rice (typically very late, around pick 85)
• I have 30 RBs I am comfortable starting and need minimum of 3 with hope to have 4
• WR: I plan to get 2 of my top 8 WRs then grab as many as possible after I secure my 2nd RB and 2 QBs (typically after pick 55 through the end of the draft)
• QBs: Depending on how fast QBs are taken, I anticipate getting my 2nd QB between picks 50 and 60.
• I plan to have Brady, Romo, Ryan as my QB2
• TE: Unless I get Graham I do not plan to draft a TE until after pick 120
• Early Rankings -


1. Peterson
2. McCoy
3. Charles
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Dez Bryant
6. Deymarius Thomas
7. Forte
8. Graham
9. Brees
10. Manning
11. Rodgers
12. Lacey
13. Ball
14. Murray
15. Green
16. Julio Jones
17. Marshall
18. Brown
19. Nelson
20. Bernard
21. Le'Veon Bell
22. Lynch
23. Martin
24. Foster
25. Ellington
26. Cobb
27. Jeffrey
28. Stafford
29. Vereen?

Final Plan -

• Draft Position: 5 (5, 12, 21, 28, 37, 44, ect.)
• Randomly drew the 3rd position. I did not want to take a RB with first pick. I hastily made the first trade of the season by swapping draft orders with the 5th overall pick.
• Initial Plan
• Follow rankings above. I anticipate I will end up with Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant at 5 and then I will be in agony hoping a player outside my top 11 is taken to guarantee me a 2nd stud (top 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 3 QBs).
• If I don't get a QB at the 12th overall pick I will be looking for 1 more WR and my first RB. After that it's all about value :)

Player Valuations -

Highly subjective. These are based on a 10-12 team league standard league with 6 points per passing TD. Notes have been made for ppr. I initially reviewed the ADP charts of ESPN and CBS on 8/12/14. My rankings reflect this. Of note I believe CBS rankings as of this posting are excellent.

2013 Review -

• Undervalued:
• Hit on 5, missed on 7, wash on 1 (Sanders)
• Overvalued
• Hit on 8, missed on 1, wash on 1 (Witten)
• Sleepers
• Hit on 2, missed on 8

As I only have 1 year of data, I am unsure of how successful to consider my 2013 player valuations. On the surface it appears I am very good at identifying overvalued players, decent at discovering undervalued players, and middle of the road at finding sleepers.

2014 Valuations (8/12/14) - 

Format:

• Player Name (CBS/ESPN Average Draft Position (##/##)
• Notes
• I would take ahead/behind: ____________

Overvalued -

• Peyton Manning (5/4)
• There are too many good WRs and RBs in the first 9 picks for me to get Manning or other QBs before pick 9
• I typically am favorable to taking a QB early, however the difference between the top 3 and 9-12, while still substantial, may be less than ever before.
• Forte, Lacey, Calvin, Dez, Demaryius, Graham
• Julius Thomas, TE (31/25)
• I like Thomas as the #2 TE, but there are too many players of other positions I would rather have
• Antonio Brown, Cobb, Ellington
• Gronk (26/31)
• Simply too risky for my blood anymore. Coming off knee and back injuries (ACL in Week 14 last year) I question if he will return to his pre-injury form.
• I still have him as my #3 TE
• See Julius Thomas
• Andrew Luck (52/36)
• QB is too deep this year
• Ellington, Gerhart, Jennings, Andre, Keenan Allen
• Gore (46/38)
• His touches will be limited. Not much tread left on his tires
• Jennings, Gerhart, Vereen 
• Zac Stacey (25/18)
• Upside is too limited given risk of low floor. Young player, not exactly sure what I'm getting. I advocate avoiding risky picks in the first 2 rounds.
• Morris, Bernard, Ellington
• Keenan Allen (42/47)
• I like the player and his ADP is close. This is mostly a ranking of seeing other WRs also being undervalued around him and a limited body of evidence with an offensive coordinator change.
• Roddy White, Cruz, Crabtree
• Sammy Watkins (86/74)
• Rookie, no QB, run first team
• Almost anyone. I'm not convinced Watkins is draftable.

Undervalued -

• Roddy White (53/48)
• Falcons line improved, healthy, large body of evidence supporting White as a high caliber receiver
• D-Jax, Garcon, Allen
• Michael Floyd (63/70)
• 1000+ yard receiver as a sophomore receiver. Second year in Arians' system. I think his 1000 yard, 5 TD 2013 campaign is his floor
• Hilton, Edelman, TEs, QBs
• Gerhart (35/62)
• Again, CBS is good here, ESPN at 62 is crazy, especially if you are in a ppr league
• RBs are thin, you need to get 3 quality RBs and Gerhart is a great low end 2nd or high end 3rd
• Gore, Tate, Matthews, Spiller, lots of WRs
• Pierre Thomas (86/79)
• 77 receptions last year, no Sproles...
• Sankey, Steven Jackson, Ridley, TEs, QBs
• QBs in the 9-14 range
• I don't care who falls here, but whoever does will be a great value on draft day. I especially like Brady/Romo/Ryan
• The 5th through 8th QBs off the board
• Terrance Williams (96/85)
• #2 WR in an offense that may though > 650 times, I am buying
• Wayne, Boldin, Wallace
• Andre Ellington (30/50)
• High talent, in line for lots of touches. 30 is a fair valuation, 50 is drastically too low
• Matthews, Ben Tate, Gore, lots of WRs
• Dez Bryant (17/16)
• High floor and high ceiling. See Terrance Williams.
• #3 WR for me. I have as a top 11 selection
• Decker (96/85)
• Geno Smith has improved. Someone has to catch the ball. Once they get in the red zone he is their best target
• Wayne, Maclin, Welker
• Torrey Smith (72/73)
• Welker, Edelman, Harvin

Sleepers -

• Bryce Brown
• Chances either Spiller or Jackson gets hurt?
• Rudolph
• Norv Turner with an improved offense
• Randle
• #2 WR in a West Coast offense w/o a TE. Biggest red zone threat for the NYG.
• Heath Miller
• Healed from injuries, Pit lost Emmanuel Sanders and Cotchery, they are going to pass
• Justin Hunter
• Sophomore WR with great offensive coordinator and has looked good in the preseason
• Lots of rookie RBs
• Hyde, West, Andre Williams
• Baldwin
• Tate gone, Seattle will limit Lynch's carriers
• Brandon Cooks
• Down Lance Moore. Colston is an injury risk. I think locked in as #2 or #3 WR in the Saints offense. I like the potential opportunity.
• Boykin
• If Nelson or Cobb gets nicked up. Plus the #3 WR for GB in absence of a TE could be good this year as well.
• Zach Ertz – 
• Eagles have to replace D-Jax. I don't trust Maclin or Cooper. I see a lot of McCoy and Ertz this year.

tldr: Have a flexible plan. Know your draft board including who to target where and what positions are available at various points in the draft. Assume everyone knows everything. Find your edge managing risk, taking value when it falls to you, and made every pick provide value.

Have a great year of enjoying America's favorite sport and check back in two weeks when I recap my drafts.