Thursday, September 27, 2012

Fantasy Football Part 2: Draft Recap

Run to the Hillis!, Cook’n up a Pack of Grahams, Here’s my number, Coll-ie maybe.

Every good draft analysis starts with a clever team name. Listed above are names specific to my teams this year, while listed below are just really good ones.

       Forgetting Brandon Marshall                           Burrested Development
Arrested Development Cast PictureForgetting Sarah Marshall Movie Cover
  
                      I'm bringing Hasselbeck                                        Henne Given Sunday  
Any Given Sunday Cover Image




A couple more for good measure :)  - Jersey Leshoure, Wacco for Flaco

In case you aren't familiar with the player names: Click Here


I wanted to follow up my previous post on my draft day plan with documenting the outcomes and thoughts of my draft results.


House of Prayer Draft Grades -
Overall: A-
Individual Draft Picks: B+
Team: B+/A- (depending on trades and Benson)

Individual Draft Picks: B+
Flaws -
  • Forgot RB roster cap
    • No real damage to team
  • Forgot IR spots
    • Some damage – Mendenhall, Matthews
  • Poor research on Pittsburgh backfield
    • Thought Jonathon Dwyer was out indefinitely with foot injury from last year
    • Green-Ellis was still on the board
  • Forgot Nate Washington
    • Would have taken Jared Cook anyways
  • Not really a flaw but didn't have the opportunity to grab any draft steals

Strenths -
  • Good value at most every pick (exception being Rounds 1 and 2 where it is difficult to get good value, can really only lose value)
  • Plan executed to perfection, planned on going QB-TE (graham)-RB (DMC, Murray)-WR-WR-RB-WR(switched these two due to being able to wait on RBs)-then value
  • I got every later round player I wanted given the roster spot limitations
  • Feel as if Jennings and Nelson fell to me
  • Only one regret, would draft everything else the same today
    • I don’t like Redman, I didn’t realize Dwyer was so close to being back, would have taken Law Firm (Green-Ellis)

Team: B+/A- (insert picture of GB Packers logo)
Flaws -
    Green Bay Packers Logo
  • 4 GB packers: Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, Benson
  • RB2 may be a little shaky, this was expected though
Strengths -
  • Good balance of risky and reliable players
  • Very strong at WR
Miscellaneous –
  • Toughest Pick: Round 5 – Jordy Nelson
  • Favorite Pick: Round 11 – Cedric Benson
    • This could really give my team a huge boost if Benson is starter
      • Starks with turf toe
  • Biggest Upside: Round 14 – Jared Cook
    • If Cook, in a contract year, with a rookie QB, can explode to become the 3rd best TE behind Graham and Gronk, I will be able to trade Graham for a great player
  • Biggest Regret: Round 6 – Isaac Redman
    • Should have taken Law Firm :/


Draft Steals –
  • Ryan Matthews, Michael Vick, Roddy White
Good Value:
  • Forte, Eli Manning, Donald Brown, DMC, Jennings, Benson, Mendenhall (IR spot), Chris Johnson, Law Firm, Steven Jackson




Hawkeye Draft Grades –
Overall: A
Individual Draft Picks: A-
Team: A-

Individual Draft Picks: A-
Flaws -
  • Got stuck with 8th draft position, my one fear heading into the draft...
  • Missed Kevin Smith, should have taken him instead of Nate Washington
  • Had a real freak out moment in Round 10. Couldn't decide between Hillis or Willis.
    • Made the right choice, but didn’t know until after I took Hillis :/
Strengths -
  • Plan went to perfection. I think I took every player/position in my plan.
  • Ended up with some good value picks in a very tough draft with Bush, Harvin, and Rashad Jennings


Team: A-
My Picks
Flaws -
  • Bench seems a little weak
    • Although I assume with 10 starting roster spots and only 7 bench spots it’s going to seem weak
  • A little weak on RBs
    • I basically need MJD to quit and then I should be good 
  • Although not really a flaw due to my terrible draft position (8), I am carrying more risk than I would prefer (Stafford, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush)
    • I typically like my risky picks to come later in the draft, not 3 in the first 60 overall picks…
Stengths -
  • Extremely happy with my starting lineup
    • If my weakest link is Peyton Hillis, who may go for 1000+ all purpose yards and double digit TDs, I should be set.


Miscellaneous –
  • Toughest Pick: Round 10 – Peyton Hillis
  • Favorite Pick: Round 6 – Percy Harvin
    • The man had 1300 all purpose yards last year with 87 receptions
    • He had 100 combined targets + rushing attempts the last 9 games of the season, the most of any player. 
      • Second Place
  • Biggest Upside: Round 14 – Rashad Jennings
    • Currently the Jags #1 RB
  • Biggest Regret: Round 13 – Nate Washington
    • Not that I don’t like Nate Washington, just wish I would have grabbed Kevin Smith instead

    Immediate afterthoughts -
    • Ended up with my most feared draft position: 8 :/
      • My season basically rests on how well Stafford and Chris Johnson perform
    • Didn’t feel as if I had to reach very much even on the end of the draft, missed out on a couple players but overall felt pretty good
    • RBs are definitely weak, was hoping to pick up Donald Brown or Jonathon Stewart but missed both
    • Really happy where I got Rashad Jennings, I think he may be starting
    • As expected, no real draft steals due to high caliber of players

    In depth analysis thoughts –
    • As expected, very few chances to gain value, can really only lose value
    • Extremely happy I went Hillis over Willis
      • Decker as WR thus try to avoid having QB/WR and RB on same team
      • I am still really high on Hillis, goal line back that catches balls and will split carries pretty evenly with Charles
    • Reaches
      • Romo (16)
      • Gates (28)
      • Cutler (45)
    • Value picks
      • Jennings (35)
        • Lots of people down on him this year…
      • Harvin (41)
        • Last of the WRs I was really happy with
      • Bush (56)
      • McGahee (79)
      • Stewart (98)
      • Rashad Jennings (105)
        • Anyone else think MJD won’t start the first 4 games?
      • Kevin Smith (114)
        • Starting RB that will catch a lot of balls, not sure how he made it here


    For completeness sake, I am playing in a third league (Warhawks). It is a 12 man keeper league (2 keepers) where 8 teams make the playoffs and has a low to mid level of competition with lower participation than the two leagues above.

    Click here for my team.


    Draft Grades –
    Overall: A
    Individual Draft Picks: A-
    Team: A-


    Quick plan overview: I traded Arian Foster for Calvin Johnson and thus ended up keeping Calvin and Forte. Plan was to grab injured players (Ryan Matthews, Jason Witten) if available as I am not worried about making the playoffs. 

    Hindsight: Underestimated level of competition. I thought I could wait to pickup some WRs I was targeting (Darius Heyward-Bey, Reggie Wayne, Lance Moore) and load up on some RBs, but ended up getting squeezed on WRs :/.



    Taken as a whole, I consider my 2012 drafting of being consistent with my expectations. With the exception of valuing Isaac Redman far too high (I was basing my ranking on the assumption Jonathan Dwyer would be out a few weeks in the regular season), I felt I performed an adequate amount of research to formulate a strong draft plan. Following the creation of my various draft plans, I believe they were executed almost to perfection, again with only one exception: I underestimated the level of competition in the Warhawk league resulting in me have poor WRs on my bench.

    My goal of the 2012 fantasy football is to win > 60% of my matchups and finish in the top half of each league. This will result in a record of 23-16 among my leagues with a projected ending regular season record of 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6.

    I hope you have enjoyed reading my post-draft analysis of fantasy football. I plan to provide an update in ~4 weeks with my current record and any significant roster moves.


    Next week’s topic: Basic level of care

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