Thursday, November 7, 2013

Gardening Part III: 2013 Recap

September 15th. A day in history that brings together:

USA Today, Lehman Brothers, Christopher Columbus (Mayflower departs England), and Dan Marino (birthday)

AND…..  

Bemidji, MN 2013 First Frost Date!

While the first frost date for Bemidji, MN pales in comparison to other noteworthy events on September 15th, it does mark the conclusion of my garden’s harvesting season. 

Even during a shortened year (109 days between last and first frost dates, 123 days is average for Bemidji, MN), 2013 was my first profitable year. So much so I was able to cover my expenses since my garden’s inception in 2011! With the recent addition of rain barrels, I hope to further expand my garden in 2014, improve my yield of green peppers and okra, and increase variety with the addition of rhubarb and asparagus.

Consistent with SMART goals and QAPI , I enjoy collecting and analyzing data. I find progress is very difficult without being able to measure outcomes and identify areas for improvement. Below is a summary of all data collected from my initial garden in 2011 to the end of 2013.




Raw Data Spreadsheet


2013 Goal Review 
Profitable
  • Total Profit: $110.54
  • Revenue: $151.50 Expenses: $40.96
  • Return on Investment (RoI): 3.7
    • Does not include water and time costs
Garden size > 200 ft2
Learn how to grow plants from seeds
  • Tomatoes and green peppers were successfully transplanted
  • Plan to try okra and cucumbers next year

Build and test rain barrel watering system
  • Building and installation complete, testing still underway
  • 3 x 50 gallon capacity (150 gallons total), plan to add 2 additional barrels next year
  • Please email me if interested in detailed instructions in building your own system!

2013 was a historic year for gardening success, expansion, and innovation (rain barrels). Next year I plan to expand my garden to 300 ft2, add rhubarb and asparagus, perfect my rain barrel system, and reach a RoI of greater than 5.0. While September 15th, 2013 pales in comparison to other historic events, I will remember it as my first profitable gardening year :).


Next Post Topic: Book Review IV: When Helping Hurts

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Fantasy Football: 2013 Draft Recap

QAPI. If like me you often interact with the health care system in general, and with Medicare/Medicaid/CMS in particular, you have likely heard of QAPI. QAPI stands for:
QAPI: Quality Assurance & Performance Improvement
I would say there are few things we should model after government services, but QAPI is one of them.

I believe all endeavors should start with SMART goals prior to any action. QAPI should then follow all significant actions. This includes fantasy football, especially the draft. I believe the sooner to an event QAPI is utilized, the more fruitful the process. Thus, following each draft I carve out two ~15 minute sessions to analyze my draft performance. Ideally I will write initial thoughts within 1 hour of finishing the draft and further review my performance the next day. When utilizing QAPI, it is important to review the processes and overall system of decision making, not just the outcomes. We are interested in the means to the end, not the end. Perfect the means, and the end result (Fantasy Football Championship) will follow.

I adamantly support applying QAPI to fantasy football drafts as it is an efficient method of future improvement. I ask myself multiple, open-ended  questions:
  • What are my initial impressions/thoughts?
  • What went according to plan?
  • What was unexpected? 
    • How did I respond to unexpected events? 
    • Why did I respond in this manner?
    • How can I better prepare for these in the future?
  • What went well?
  • What went poorly?
  • What was just plain ugly?
  • What would I do the same?
  • What, if given the same set of circumstances, would I do differently?
  • What changes can be made to improve performance in the future?
  • What do I consider keys to success?
  • Summary/Final Thoughts

I have outlined my 2013 draft analysis QAPI in the following format:
  • Players who are struggling/breaking out 3 weeks into season with thoughts of how to anticipate these in the future
  • Draft Analysis – the good, bad, ugly, and final thoughts
  • Conclusion

Surprises -

Struggling -
  • Tom Brady
    • Amendola and Gronk injuries have dragged on
  • C.J. Spiller
    • New coaching staff, new QB, defenses stacking the box
    • Did have 1600+ yards with a 6.0 YPC average last year. I still haven’t given up hope on Spiller
  • RBs in general: Ray Rice, Spiller, T-Rich, Ridley, Morris, Foster, CJ, S-Jax
    • Haven’t given up hope on any of these yet. Although I was never high on Morris, I would definitely consider trading for him at this point
  • New York Giants
    • General decline in recent years, but unexpected to this degree
    • Monitor early declines. If changes are not made during the offseason, momentum may continue driving them further down
  • Kenny Britt
    • Maybe not a huge surprise, was high risk high reward to begin with
  • Lance Moore
    • No idea… Too many mouths to feed? If he wasn’t injured I would still give him a chance, but just drop him at this point
  • Roddy White
    • Injury – trade for this guy if you can get a reasonable value
  • Dwayne Bowe
    • Even with a great coach and passing scheme with Andy Reid, do apparently need a QB
  • Rob Gronkowski
    • Prolonged injury
Breaking out -
  • Jordan Cameron
    • I did see this coming as I picked him up quickly in the preseason. New head coach and offensive coordinator who love TEs. Expected the same from Rob Housler, but high ankle sprain has sidelined Housler
  • Pierre Garcon
    • Not convinced. Too shaky of QB play
  • Jimmy Graham
    • Huge stats, more than I would have even expected. Never underestimate elite QBs with elite pass catchers.
  • Julius Thomas, DEN TE
    • Peyton Manning – NFL is a QB league, anyone on a team with an elite quarterback has their value rise tremendously
  • Martellus Bennett
    • Not convinced, Cutler has his struggles coupled with poor offense line keeping him in to help with blocking...

Hawkeye League Analysis –
Overview
  • RB slide will hurt me as I loaded up with RBs on my first 3 picks
    • Steven Jackson fell to #40 overall, Steven Ridley to #46
  • Need to hit some fliers on WRs due to going heavy RB and Stafford early in the draft (only drafted 1 WR in first 6 picks)
    • I do like Lance Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, and Miles Austin as replacement level players. Thus I feel as if I am deep at replacement level WR, but unfortunately do not have a lot of sleeper WR potential which may hamstring my success
Good
  • #1 overall pick, random luck here as I do believe this was the best pick in the draft
  • Great value in RBs by being able to start Adrian Peterson (1), C.J. Spiller (16), Trent Richardson (17), and Darren Sproles (48)
  • Was able to secure two QBs I am very comfortable starting in Stafford and Eli Manning. I feel Eli Manning at 64th overall was great value
  • As mentioned above, very happy with caliber of replacement level WRs.
Bad
  • Dwayne Bowe at 33
    • Don’t get me wrong, I am very high on Bowe (Draft Plan), however I left Vincent Jackson on the board who probably has both a higher floor and higher ceiling
  • Projected Net Loss: 150 yards, 1 TD, 21 points
Ugly
  • Steve Smith at 49
    • Arghh!!! – I hate myself for this one. Welker is such an easy lock here over Steve Smith, whiffed big time on this one. Got flustered after Reggie Wayne was taken right before me
    • Projected net loss: 150 yards, 4 TDs, 39 points
  • Missed Jared Cook at 113
    • Was overconfident in my ability to secure Cook after 10 TEs had been drafted in an 8 team league
    • While ugly it is difficult to predict a projected net loss as we don’t know much about Cook or my two TEs in Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler
    • I estimate a 100 yard, 2 TD, 22 point loss here
Final thoughts
  • I feel I left a total of 82 points on the board or 5.1 points per week in a 16 game season
  • Due to the competitiveness of the league, I project I will finish 5/8 and miss the playoffs. A very poor draft overall considering I believe I had the best pick in the draft at #1 overall
  • This is the league I am 0-3 in, may not even be able to finish in top 5…

LDF Draft Analysis
Overview
  • As feared, got squeezed on my 57th overall pick (Draft Planning)
  • Very interesting draft as I reached for Gronk at 40 overall
  • This was not my original plan (originally would have take at 57), but with news Gronk is practicing in full pads, I was unable to pass him up in a low competition league where 8/12 teams make the playoffs. Decided to work towards having a solid second half team rather than first half team as I typically follow.
  • Actually waited longer on a QB than originally thought. Was expecting to pickup one at 105 however I left Eli Manning on the board in favor of Josh Gordon. Worked out alright as I ended up with Bradford and Palmer, two QBs I was willing to take a chance on.
    • Have since picked up Philip Rivers
  • Going to suffer at RB (as expected without having a 2nd RB in the first 4 rounds) as Ivory or Mendenhall is currently my #2. Going to need a break on waivers.
Good
  • Huge upside with Gronk
Bad
  • No real breakout candidates as was stuck drafting the likes of Mendenhall, Powell, Ingram on my bench to try to get a #2 RB. Was good value in WRs at this point I was forced to pass on to shore up RB position
    • Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson
Ugly
  • Nothing really ugly about this draft, I did get heckled about waiting so long to take a QB, but I still believe it was best to wait. I actually took the 17th QB off the board for my first QB in a 12 team league. Five other teams had already taken backups…
Final thoughts
  • While I do not disagree with any of my picks, I do not like the way the dice fell in this draft. Going back it probably would have been wiser to take Le’Von Bell rather than Ivory. Tough to say though.
  • May have left Ingram on the board and taken T.Y. Hilton
  • Given I can secure a #2 RB my team should be very solid.

2013 has the looks of a rough year in fantasy football. I have a started out 0-3 in the Hawkeye League and 2-1 in LDF league. A high probability exists of having a second straight year where I fail to make the playoffs. This would put me at making the playoffs in 3/5 leagues in 2012 and 2013 combined. Still better than average, but I believe I should be able to achieve 4/5 or 5/5 playoff bound teams. The key takeaway message from this year’s drafting: preparation is still key. Both drafts went unexpectedly. I feel I was able to effectively adapt well for both situations with the exception of taking Steve Smith over Welker. That one is going to haunt me all year… As showcased above, I strongly recommend utilizing QAPI in both fantasy football as well as other significant endeavors to improve overall performance and future decision making.


Next Post Topic: Gardening Recap

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Book Review III: A Foreign Policy of Freedom

Overall Rating: 4.5/5 

Estimated Reading Time: 10 hours (371 pages, ~1.5 minutes / page)

Why I choose to read:
  • 2012 presidential primary debates spurred my interest in foreign policy due to controversy on Israel-Iran tensions.
    • Desire to hear Ron Paul’s stance on foreign policy from the horse’s mouth, not from secondary media outlets.
  • Read Ron Paul’s The Revolution and End the Fed further raising my interest in understanding Ron Paul’s noninterventionist beliefs.
  • Numerous foreign events in recent times:
    • Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Israel, Korean Peninsula, G-7, G-20, United Nations, NATO
  • Underdeveloped political area of mine.


Background:
  • Subject
    • Ron Paul’s beliefs and insights into America’s foreign policy. More specifically, an in depth study of Ron Paul’s support of noninterventionist foreign policy.
  • Year Written: 1997
  • Cultural Context
    • 6 years post Gulf War
    • Soviet Union dissolved in 1991
      • Cold War


Author Details:
  • Promoter of Austrian Economics
    • Ludwig von Mises
    • Murray Rothbard
  • Libertarian platform
  • Ron Paul Channel
    • Online video platform with episodes of Ron Paul’s views on current and controversial issues
  • Texas senator for 25 years
  • Detailed Biographys


Reflections:
What I appreciated -
  • Increased my understanding of how our foreign policy is perceived worldwide.
  • Makes me extremely frustrated with the wasted resources (people, money) and harm to citizens of both our own country and other countries.
  • Increased sympathy for Ron Paul. His steadfastness in holding to his beliefs in the face of misrepresentation and malignment by others is noteworthy.
  • Has tried so hard to steer our country away from foolish decisions with few if any results. I feel we are now reaping the fruit of our planting in the 21st century with 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Korea, China, etc.
    • It is no wonder why Ron Paul receives more donations from military members and their families than any other candidate.
  • Free pdf of entire book at Ludwig von Mises Institute
Shortcomings -
  • Due to publication date of 1997, has missed a number of foreign affairs in the last 15 years.
    • Would have been very interesting to hear how these events fit into Ron Paul’s framework.


Key Messages:
  • Ron Paul believes in policy of armed neutrality (linked with free trade and strong defense)
  • A policy of non-intervention would make America stronger, wealthier, more influential, and a respected beacon of liberty
  • Giveaway programs (foreign aid) and trade barriers (tariffs) create contempt, hostility, national debt, and decrease American business competitiveness
  • Giving foreign aid for peaceful purposes (humanitarian aid) allows countries to free up their own limited capital for military purposes
  • Treating our enemy’s enemy as friends is short lived
  • 60% of our military budget is being spent on the defense of other nations (1997)
  • In an attempt to balance interests we anger all sides
  • By trying to support both sides we alienate both sides
  • When one person can initiate war (president), a republic no longer exists
  • The president may be commander in chief, but Congress authorizes funding, no funding = no foreign intervention
    • Waging war and ratifying treaties is a legislative function, not executive
  • Out of political fear, Congress relinquished/transferred its war declaring power to the president
  • In the end, the economic consequences of world domination will dictate our policies
  • The demand to sacrifice liberty at home to promote freedom and democracy abroad rings hollow
    • Hypocritical to use outside force to achieve freedom
    • Economic law eventually overcomes politicians deceit
    • Seems ironic we have been allies with Sadaam, Osama, and the Islamists in Iran
    • Noninterventionists are misrepresented as isolationists, however the consequences of interventionist polices actually lead to isolationism
      • Decreased allies, increased enemies, worsened economic conditions
  • Opposing continuing wars is not a lack of support for the troops, in many ways it is supporting them by bring them home to their families
  • Henry Grady Weaver:
"Most of the major ills of the world have been caused by well-meaning people who ignored the principle of individual freedom, except as applied to themselves, and who were obsessed with fanatical zeal to improve the lot of mankind-in-the-mass through some pet formula of their own. The harm done by ordinary criminals, murderers, gangsters, and thieves is negligible in comparison with the agony inflicted upon human beings by the professional do-gooders, who attempt to set themselves up as gods on earth and who would ruthlessly force their views on all others with the abiding assurance that the end justifies the means."
  • Rather than democrat or republican should use terms libertarian and socialist as both democrats and republicans support a mix of both libertarian and socialist policies
  • We sacrifice future wealth for present indulgence at the expense of individual liberty
    • The debtor is slave to the lender
  • Bad ideas, whether promoted by men of bad or good intentions will produce bad results
  • Wars are won with sound economics (my thought)
  • Ron Paul was for responding to 9/11 with intelligent military force
  • Before committing to a war, success, our enemy, and our exit strategy should all be defined and approved by Congress
  • Should avoid entangling alliances and have an exit strategy for all alliances
  • War is often built around money (like everything else) rather than our nation’s security
  • Ron Paul is very much against the UN/NATO (decreases America’s sovereignty)
  • Thomas Jefferson said “peace, commerce, honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none”
  • The United States should strive to be an example to other nations such that foreign peoples/governments will enact their own change outside of U.S. influence
  • War results in innocent people dying and damaged economies
  •  “A government big enough to give you everything is big enough to take it all away”
    • David Crocket
  • We support a military takeover as long as the new dictator does as we tell him
  • To dismiss terrorism as a result of Muslim’s hating us because we are rich and free is a fraud
  • Preemptive wars for humanitarian causes could be privately funded and manned
    • LOVE this idea!
  • Cannot fund both foreign entanglements and domestic entitlements
  • Supports move towards localized government and weak central government
  • Elections are a consequence (good) of freedom; freedom is achieved first and then elections
  • Using force contradicts the moral foundation of a free society


To who would I recommend reading?
  • Everyone. Our personal and country’s safety, freedom, peace, and prosperity is at risk
  • Especially young and middle-aged as we bear the greatest human and financial cost

To who would I not recommend reading?
  • Ron Paul
  • Those who have read it in the last 10 years
  • Read these books first:
    • Doctrine - Driscoll
    • Economics in One Lesson – Hazlitt


I believe A Foreign Policy of Freedom is one of Ron Paul’s greatest works. It is a shame it has not garnered greater attention, especially in light of recent foreign conflicts, largely the outcomes of seeds sown long ago. I agree with Ron Paul, a policy of non-intervention would make America stronger, wealthier, more influential, and a respected beacon of liberty. All things I believe all people would agree are worth striving for.


Next Post Topic: Fantasy Football: 2013 Draft Recap