Fantasy Football 2014: Draft Recap

A fantasy football draft is akin to building a house and the season a time of weathering. Time will tell if I built a house of straw, sticks, or bricks. My initial impression is my planning, preparation, and discipline enabled me to build a brick house to endure the winds of injuries, suspensions, depth chart changes, and a world of unknowns.

Please refer to Draft Prep for league details and draft strategy.

LDF -

Overall: A

• Missed on Brandon Cooks

Individual Picks: A-

• Minor mistake in round 10 (Cooks)

Team: A-

• A little too much risk with young RBs

Good:

• First 7 rounds went as good as could be expected
• Pulled trigger on Patterson at 37 overall.
• Patterson highlights the need to know your league’s scoring system. I see lots of mediocre WRs between picks 30 and 60. This league is non-ppr, gives points for kickoff returns and punt returns, and allows for 2 keepers per year. All of these factors increase Patterson’s value.
• Took value when it fell to me (Brady at 79 overall)
• Solid RB core with Ball, Ellington, and Jennings

Bad:

• Took Mark Ingram (who I like) rather than Brandon Cooks (who I really like). The points for return yards and keeper potential make Cooks a better option at 109.

Ugly:

• Teams left without RBs
• 1 team forced to start Sankey with no third. Another starting Lamar Miller with no backup (prior to Moreno injury), a third team starting Joique Bell with Mike Tolbert as third
• I have Heath Miller as my TE. I would have preferred better, however, I made the decision to trade for one later
• Out of my control but I lost Andre Williams as a handcuff to Jennings prior to my pick at 108

Final thoughts:

• Lots of risk in unknown players: Ball, Ellington, Patterson, Rashad Jennings  
• I need to remember the majority of people take a backup TE and take my starting TE earlier in the draft

Bemidji -

Overall: A+

• Stacked team. I will be shocked if I don’t make the playoffs. I anticipate a 55% win rate in non-bye weeks and a 60% win rate during bye weeks as my bench is amazing (Ellington, Rashad Jennings, Michael Floyd, Wright, Pierre Thomas)

Individual Picks: A+

• Limiting to factors in my control, I would not have done a single pick different.

Team: A+

• Difference makers in Calvin, Dez, Murray, Stafford, and Gronk. Additionally, I have a very deep bench that should allow me to make and have a small edge in the playoffs.

Good

• Every pick starting in round 7 (overall pick 53) I was saying, “how in the world is this player still here.”
• Gronk, Brady, Ellington, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Pierre Thomas, Golden Tate, Rashad Jennings, Roethlisberger, Cooks

Bad

• Inaugural year of the league. Rule voting left rosters with only 1 flex position (rather than 2). A meager 72 skill position players (QB, RB, WR) are started each week. This means every team is stacked to some degree.
• Lots of overlapping players – 3 patriots, 2 Lions, 2 NYG, 2 Cardinals, 2 Cowboys
• Fortunately none of these teams share bye weeks

Ugly

• 6 kickers taken before the final 2 rounds
• Too many good players left on the waiver wire will bail out the teams who drafted poorly
• Kelvin Benjamin, Reuban Randle, Sankey, Steven Jackson, Carlos Hyde, Justin Hunter, Boykin
• After the first 2 weeks does not seem many of these are that great…
• Although more on the wire: Gerhart, Terrance West, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller, Zac Stacey, Jeremy Hill
• Someone dropped T.Y. Hilton who is tied for 5th in targets after week 2. As much as I like Cooks, I had to drop Cooks to pickup Hilton.

Final Thoughts

• 1 pick away from landing Antonio Brown at pick 28 (4th round) 
• Taking Stafford at 21 overall (3rd round) was my least favorite selection. Part of me wishes I went Antonio Brown. I could have chosen to roll the dice with Brown and hoped Stafford fell back to me. I will never know. I think Stafford was the safer pick rather than going 3 straight WRs (consistent with valuing flexibility as discussed in Draft Prep). 
• Taking Stafford still allows me to rotate Cruz, Michael Floyd, Wright, and Golden Tate in my WR3 and Flex position.

While I felt and still feel great about my drafts, results after 2 weeks have been okay:

Overall Record: 2-2

• Bemidji League: 1-1
• Week 1: Scored 188 points, second most in the league and lost.
• Week 2: Scored 147 points, 4/8 in the league and won thanks in large part to opposing team having both Charles and A.J. Green who were injured
• LDF: 1-1
• Week 1: Won my LDF league by scoring 116.5 points (3/12 teams in total points).
• Week 2: Put up 64 points, the least in the league...

Although I am off to an okay start, there are many more weeks and headlines to shake things up. I anticipate my deep benches will allow me to hit my stride during the 9 weeks teams have their bye weeks and will reveal who has houses built of straw, sticks, or bricks.

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