Fantasy Football 2014 Recap

The 2014 Fantasy Football season went as anticipated and outlined in my 2014 Draft Recap post. Unproven RBs and injuries hamstrung my efforts in my 12 team LDF league, while a deep bench propelled me to victory in my 8 team Bemidji league.


Goal overview -
As set in 2014 Draft Prep post, I was able to achieve two out of three goals, however I fell short of achieving one goal in my LDF league:

1. Make playoffs in all leagues
• Went 2/2
2. Have a 59% overall win rate amongst all leagues
• 16-11 combined record (59% win rate)
3. Finish in the top half of each league with median total weekly points
• Bemidji: 1/8; LDF: 9/12

While I was able to meet the majority of my goals, I am more interested in the process as opposed to the outcome of achieving my goals. I have listed an analysis of my process on both leagues below.

Bemidji Recap - 8 team, 2 QB, ppr (actual draft)

Record: 10-4 (1st place); 1st in total points

• As predicted had a very solid team (2014 Draft Recap)
• Scored the most points in 7 out of 16 weeks and top 3 in points in 14/16 weeks
• Won 9 out of 10 games to end the season
• Lost only Cruz and Ellington to injuries
• Also Floyd and Fitzgerald with the Carson Palmer injury
• Gronk stayed health all year!
• Picking up T.Y. Hilton, C.J. Anderson, and Beckham really helped
• Don’t feel as bad about Beckham as I lost Cruz for the year
• Disappointing year by Stafford
• Injury to Calvin Johnson hurt him. A switch in offensive coordinators likely was a setback as well. Difficult to tell. I thought the addition of an actual 2nd receiver in Golden Tate would have helped more. Only 22 TD passes. 5 less than Flacco and Tannehill.
• Difficult schedule as I had the 2nd most points scored against me
• Looking at the draft board, as much as I want to say I should have taken Antonio Brown, I simply had Stafford ranked in a Tier of his own between the Top 3 and 5 through 17 QBs. I knew I could wait on RB which left me with choosing between a third straight WR (already drafted Calvin and Dez) and a QB.
• I valued flexibility over straight value and I believe this benefited me by being able to take Gronk at 53 overall rather than feeling squeezed to take my first QB.
• Too many good players left on the board allowed me to have a crazy bench in Pierre Thomas, Golden Tate, Rashad Jennings, Michael Floyd
• One mistake was taking a Bill Belichick RB in Vereen over a main RB in Bell

LDF Recap - 12 team, 2 keeper, non-ppr

Record: 6-7 (8th); 9th in total points

• Suffered regular season woes with injuries to Montee Ball, Calvin Johnson, Rashad Jennings, Carson Palmer (large effect on Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington), and lingering injury to Andre Ellington
• Difficult year after missing on Ball, Patterson, Crabtree and injuries to Ellington, Jennings, Johnson, Floyd
• I had picked up Ronnie Hillman, but C.J. Anderson was the Denver RB I needed. I knew one was going to have a great year. I just missed twice :/
• Missed players during draft
• T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, DeSean Jackson
• Not a lot of opportunities. I liked T.Y. Hilton, but I liked Crabtree and Floyd better and I would have had a difficult time drafting Hilton above these two.
• C.J. Anderson and Beckham Jr. were both drafted
• Lost first round playoff game after not starting Baldwin against Philadelphia. Instead I started an injured Rashad Jennings at Tennessee :(

General Player Recap -

• Rookie WRs performed very well
• Beckham, Evans, Benjamin, Cooks, and to a degree Watkins
• 2nd year RBs performed well
• Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Bell
• Top level players all performed relatively well
• Some regression with McCoy, Graham, and Brandon Marshall

Proposed Draft Changes -

• I am well satisfied with my drafting process and see little need for change. This is promising as 2014 was my 11th year of drafting teams.
• In snake type drafts, I believe I thrive on have middle picks rather than end picks. This allows me to better gauge who will be available for my next pick.
• I plan to continue trying to trade into middle picks going forward.
• I was pleased with trading out of the early round picks and drafting a WR or QB in the 1st round. I believe I will continue to do this as well.
• I will revert back to staying away from Bill Belichick running backs. I thought this was the year for Vereen to dominate ppr leagues, but was left disappointed.

I remain well pleased with my current approach to fantasy football and plan to continue outlining my approach in future posts (Part I). After watching a total of three games in 2014, I also firmly believe one does not need to watch games to win their fantasy football league. With another year in the books, I look forward to enjoying three great weeks of playoff football. I predict the Seattle Seahawks repeat as champions with a 4 point victory over the Denver Broncos.

Next Post Topic: Disability Overview

Fantasy Football 2014: Draft Recap

A fantasy football draft is akin to building a house and the season a time of weathering. Time will tell if I built a house of straw, sticks, or bricks. My initial impression is my planning, preparation, and discipline enabled me to build a brick house to endure the winds of injuries, suspensions, depth chart changes, and a world of unknowns.

Please refer to Draft Prep for league details and draft strategy.

LDF -

Overall: A

• Missed on Brandon Cooks

Individual Picks: A-

• Minor mistake in round 10 (Cooks)

Team: A-

• A little too much risk with young RBs

Good:

• First 7 rounds went as good as could be expected
• Pulled trigger on Patterson at 37 overall.
• Patterson highlights the need to know your league’s scoring system. I see lots of mediocre WRs between picks 30 and 60. This league is non-ppr, gives points for kickoff returns and punt returns, and allows for 2 keepers per year. All of these factors increase Patterson’s value.
• Took value when it fell to me (Brady at 79 overall)
• Solid RB core with Ball, Ellington, and Jennings

Bad:

• Took Mark Ingram (who I like) rather than Brandon Cooks (who I really like). The points for return yards and keeper potential make Cooks a better option at 109.

Ugly:

• Teams left without RBs
• 1 team forced to start Sankey with no third. Another starting Lamar Miller with no backup (prior to Moreno injury), a third team starting Joique Bell with Mike Tolbert as third
• I have Heath Miller as my TE. I would have preferred better, however, I made the decision to trade for one later
• Out of my control but I lost Andre Williams as a handcuff to Jennings prior to my pick at 108

Final thoughts:

• Lots of risk in unknown players: Ball, Ellington, Patterson, Rashad Jennings  
• I need to remember the majority of people take a backup TE and take my starting TE earlier in the draft

Bemidji -

Overall: A+

• Stacked team. I will be shocked if I don’t make the playoffs. I anticipate a 55% win rate in non-bye weeks and a 60% win rate during bye weeks as my bench is amazing (Ellington, Rashad Jennings, Michael Floyd, Wright, Pierre Thomas)

Individual Picks: A+

• Limiting to factors in my control, I would not have done a single pick different.

Team: A+

• Difference makers in Calvin, Dez, Murray, Stafford, and Gronk. Additionally, I have a very deep bench that should allow me to make and have a small edge in the playoffs.

Good

• Every pick starting in round 7 (overall pick 53) I was saying, “how in the world is this player still here.”
• Gronk, Brady, Ellington, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Pierre Thomas, Golden Tate, Rashad Jennings, Roethlisberger, Cooks

Bad

• Inaugural year of the league. Rule voting left rosters with only 1 flex position (rather than 2). A meager 72 skill position players (QB, RB, WR) are started each week. This means every team is stacked to some degree.
• Lots of overlapping players – 3 patriots, 2 Lions, 2 NYG, 2 Cardinals, 2 Cowboys
• Fortunately none of these teams share bye weeks

Ugly

• 6 kickers taken before the final 2 rounds
• Too many good players left on the waiver wire will bail out the teams who drafted poorly
• Kelvin Benjamin, Reuban Randle, Sankey, Steven Jackson, Carlos Hyde, Justin Hunter, Boykin
• After the first 2 weeks does not seem many of these are that great…
• Although more on the wire: Gerhart, Terrance West, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller, Zac Stacey, Jeremy Hill
• Someone dropped T.Y. Hilton who is tied for 5th in targets after week 2. As much as I like Cooks, I had to drop Cooks to pickup Hilton.

Final Thoughts

• 1 pick away from landing Antonio Brown at pick 28 (4th round) 
• Taking Stafford at 21 overall (3rd round) was my least favorite selection. Part of me wishes I went Antonio Brown. I could have chosen to roll the dice with Brown and hoped Stafford fell back to me. I will never know. I think Stafford was the safer pick rather than going 3 straight WRs (consistent with valuing flexibility as discussed in Draft Prep). 
• Taking Stafford still allows me to rotate Cruz, Michael Floyd, Wright, and Golden Tate in my WR3 and Flex position.

While I felt and still feel great about my drafts, results after 2 weeks have been okay:

Overall Record: 2-2

• Bemidji League: 1-1
• Week 1: Scored 188 points, second most in the league and lost.
• Week 2: Scored 147 points, 4/8 in the league and won thanks in large part to opposing team having both Charles and A.J. Green who were injured
• LDF: 1-1
• Week 1: Won my LDF league by scoring 116.5 points (3/12 teams in total points).
• Week 2: Put up 64 points, the least in the league...

Although I am off to an okay start, there are many more weeks and headlines to shake things up. I anticipate my deep benches will allow me to hit my stride during the 9 weeks teams have their bye weeks and will reveal who has houses built of straw, sticks, or bricks.

Next Post Topic: Minimum Wage Part V: Politicians, Middle Class, and Foreigners

Fantasy Football 2014: Draft Prep

Westbrook kneels at 1 yard line

As in Dungeons and Dragons, fantasy football is not much more than random rolls of the dice. Amongst injuries, suspensions, dog houses (Ridley), poor performances, kneeling at 1 yard line (Westbrook), early TD celebrations (D-Jax), garbage time statistics, and on and on and on. No one knows with what will happen in fantasy football.

• 2013 Exampes: Ray Rice, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon, Zac Stacey, Alshon Jeffrey, Julius Thomas, Keenan Allen

How do we navigate a minefield filled with gems? With knowledge, a plan, and intentionality. Similar to Draft Prep 2013 and Draft Prep 2012, I will outline:

• General strategy
• Goals
• League Overviews and Plan
• Player Valuations
• tldr

General Strategy

Unless otherwise noted, I assume a 10 or 12 team 

league with standard roster sizes and scoring systems.

• Quarterbacks
• I find myself waiting to draft a QB until greater than overall pick 100
• I see little difference between QB 4 and QB 14 (Rivers). I want to draft the 10-14th QB off the board, not the 5-7th.
• I will take a top 3 QB after my top 3 WRs and 5 RBs
• Thus, the earliest I would take a QB would be pick 9.

• Tight Ends
• Unless you have more confidence than me on a breakout TE, I suggest waiting on a TE
• I am confident starting Zach Erzt, Dennis Pitta, Greg Olsen, and Heath Miller as late round TEs leading me to wait even further to draft a TE
• After Graham and Thomas, I have no idea what the rest of the TE ranks will be at the end of the season
• Graham is a stud and I rank him after my top 5 RBs, top 3 WRs and top 3 QBs in a non-ppr, 6 point passing TD league (earliest being 12th overall). In a ppr league or 4 point per passing TD leagues, I suggest taking Graham before the big 3 QBs (or as early as 9th overall).
• Rational
• I think the top 3 QBs can give you 1000 yards and 10 TDs more than replacement which is 100 points. Graham can give you 550 yards and 5 TDs which is 90 points. This makes QBs better, with exception of ppr or 4 point per passing TD leagues where graham will pick up another 20-30 points on his replacement players and/or QBs will only being 80 points better than replacement.
• I like J. Thomas with Decker leaving. However it is difficult for me to warrant getting him around 30th overall. I would be more excited to get him around pick 50.
• I am not touching Gronk unless it’s the 50th+ pick. Even if he does play please remember he is coming off of an ACL tear in week 14.

• Running Backs
• I rarely like my mock drafts unless I have a clear #1 RB. My last #1 RB is Le’Veon Bell being drafted at #18 overall. Morris or Martin my be a low end #1, however I am not excited about these two.
• There are a lot of RB fliers, but the last RB I would be comfortable starting week 1 is Rashad Jennings/Gerhart being drafted at 55 overall on CBS ADP
• This means I plan to get RBs early and often
• Other potential backs are Joique Bell, Richardson, Ben Tate, Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas
• All backs I forsee being startable by midseason. I am not confident at this time to start them week 1 though (exception being Tate who is a ticking time bomb with injuries)

• Wide Receivers
• I want one of my top 8 (ending with Brown), followed by 2 more in the top 60. The last WR I am excited about starting in week 1 is Michael Floyd being drafted at 62 overall.
• There are a lot of WRs I am excited about between picks 70 and 110, but I prefer to watch and wait on these rather than start them week 1.
• Torrey Smith, Colston, Tate, Maclin, Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Eric Decker, Riley Cooper, Reuben Randle

• Positional Recap
• I want at least 3 RBs and 3 WRs in the first 60 overall picks. I also like the values of WRs between picks 70 and 110. Therefore, I find myself ignoring QBs/TEs and drafting A LOT of RBs/WRs.
• In my last mock draft, my first 10 picks were RBs/WRs. I then took Romo and Ertz with my next 2 picks. I have no regrets rounding out my team with Romo and Ertz and love the rest of my team.

• I minimize risk early and gradually increase my risk tolerance as the draft progress
• I believe as Matthew Berry states, "You can’t win your draft in the first few round but you can definitely lose it."
• I stick with safety early and shoot for high risk, high reward in the middle and end of the draft

• Flexibility
• There is a balance between having flexibility and taking the best value player.
• I prefer to keep as balanced as roster as possible. It is frustrating when a great value RB falls to you in the 5th round, but you have taken 3 RBs and 1 WR. 

• Know what positions you can get where
• I know RB falls off a cliff after pick 55. I love the top 8 WRs, however I believe there is good value at WR in the 50-60 range (Cruz, White, Floyd, Garcon) and good flier WRs between 70-110
• After pick 25 there is a notable falloff in both RB and WR safe picks. IMO there are safe QB and TE picks much later (> pick 100)
• As is common, I will select a DST and K in last two rounds of my draft

Goals

1. Make playoffs in all leagues
2. Have a 59% overall win rate amongst all leagues (16-11 combined regular season record for 2 leagues)
3. Finish in the top half of each league with median total weekly points
• Head to head leagues favor consistency more than extreme highs and lows. Median is a better measure of consistency than mean.

League Overviews and Detailed Plans -

LDF Warhawks: 12 team, 2 keeper, standard scoring (6 points per passing TD) with 8 teams making playoffs; low competition

• Due to the low competition I am more willing to take fliers on late season bloomers (Gronk and Gordon last year). This year I probably value Sankey, Monte Ball, Ray Rice, Lamar Miller. Basically anyone that may start slow but end strong.

Ended last year winning the regular season at 9-4

• Many good players with Megatron, Demaryius, Josh Gordon, Zac Stacey, and Monte Ball
• Traded D. Thomas to move up 30 draft picks ranging from 85 overall to 55 overall
• Traded Zac Stacey to move from 36 to 33 and 66 to 57

Draft picks: 33, 37, 55, 57, 60, 79, 108, 109, 132, 133, 156, 157, 180, 181

• 33 – Best Case: Antonio Brown; 2nd: Andre Ellington; 3rd: Alshon Jeffery
• 37 – Best: Andre Ellington; 2nd: Patterson; 3rd: Andre Johnson
• I value Patterson higher due to receiving 1 point for every 25 kickoff return yards (Patterson had 1300+ last year), keeper potential, and liking the WRs with my 3 picks at 55, 57, and 60
• 55, 57, 60 – Best Case: Jennings/Gerhart/Vereen, Floyd, White
• Need a 3/4 or 4/3 split of RBs/WRs
• 79 – Terrance Williams, Golden Tate
• 108, 109 – Best: Romo/Ryan/Brady and TE (Olsen, Ertz)
• If Health Miller and Zach Ertz are both on the board, I may hurt myself here and wait on a TE by grabbing Rueban Randle
• Last 4 picks: RB and WR Fliers: Cooks, Cooper, Greene, Bryce Brown, Doug Baldwin, Kelvin Benjamin, Boykin, Hunter

Concluding Thoughts -

• I need to leave my flex open for my 3 picks between 55 and 60 (which will likely decide the outcome of my year). I will be hoping to get Andre Ellington at 33 or 37 and take a WR with my other pick. This will leave me a 2/2 split of RBs/WRs allowing me great flexibility for my 55, 57, and 60 picks.
• At 79 I may be looking Pitta if no one else is available (Williams, Tate) and then at 108 going QB and Rueben Randle.

Bemidji: 8 team, 1 ppr, 2 QB (4 points per passing TD) with 4 teams making playoffs; 6/10 competition

• Starting Rosters: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE; I will not know my pick until ~15 minutes prior to draft
• I originally had 2 Flex positions to further increase the value of RB/WR, however this was voted down to 1 Flex position which additionally decreases RB values

General Notes -

• RBs have very depressed value with 8 less starting week and ppr adding viable backs in Vereen, Pierre Thomas, CJ0k, and potentially Joique Bell, Sproles, Spiller, Jennings, Gerhart
• I plan to have 1 solid starter ending with Ellington
• QB values go up marginally overall compared to standard leagues. Due to their consistency I bump them up further than their actual value increase. There are 16 QBs I feel comfortable starting week 1 and Palmer is my #17 QB. I plan to have 3 of my top 17 QBs.
• General Draft Strategy
• Early Rounds: After 4 picks I want as many difference makers (top 3 RBs, 3 QBs, 1 TE, 8 WRs) as possible and a RB no worse than Ellington (see rankings below)
• RB: 1 early, 2nd once RBs start thinning out (typically around pick 40), 3rd and 4th I will wait as long as possible before ending with Pierre Thomas, Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Spiller, Richardson, Ray Rice (typically very late, around pick 85)
• I have 30 RBs I am comfortable starting and need minimum of 3 with hope to have 4
• WR: I plan to get 2 of my top 8 WRs then grab as many as possible after I secure my 2nd RB and 2 QBs (typically after pick 55 through the end of the draft)
• QBs: Depending on how fast QBs are taken, I anticipate getting my 2nd QB between picks 50 and 60.
• I plan to have Brady, Romo, Ryan as my QB2
• TE: Unless I get Graham I do not plan to draft a TE until after pick 120
• Early Rankings -


1. Peterson
2. McCoy
3. Charles
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Dez Bryant
6. Deymarius Thomas
7. Forte
8. Graham
9. Brees
10. Manning
11. Rodgers
12. Lacey
13. Ball
14. Murray
15. Green
16. Julio Jones
17. Marshall
18. Brown
19. Nelson
20. Bernard
21. Le'Veon Bell
22. Lynch
23. Martin
24. Foster
25. Ellington
26. Cobb
27. Jeffrey
28. Stafford
29. Vereen?

Final Plan -

• Draft Position: 5 (5, 12, 21, 28, 37, 44, ect.)
• Randomly drew the 3rd position. I did not want to take a RB with first pick. I hastily made the first trade of the season by swapping draft orders with the 5th overall pick.
• Initial Plan
• Follow rankings above. I anticipate I will end up with Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant at 5 and then I will be in agony hoping a player outside my top 11 is taken to guarantee me a 2nd stud (top 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 3 QBs).
• If I don't get a QB at the 12th overall pick I will be looking for 1 more WR and my first RB. After that it's all about value :)

Player Valuations -

Highly subjective. These are based on a 10-12 team league standard league with 6 points per passing TD. Notes have been made for ppr. I initially reviewed the ADP charts of ESPN and CBS on 8/12/14. My rankings reflect this. Of note I believe CBS rankings as of this posting are excellent.

2013 Review -

• Undervalued:
• Hit on 5, missed on 7, wash on 1 (Sanders)
• Overvalued
• Hit on 8, missed on 1, wash on 1 (Witten)
• Sleepers
• Hit on 2, missed on 8

As I only have 1 year of data, I am unsure of how successful to consider my 2013 player valuations. On the surface it appears I am very good at identifying overvalued players, decent at discovering undervalued players, and middle of the road at finding sleepers.

2014 Valuations (8/12/14) - 

Format:

• Player Name (CBS/ESPN Average Draft Position (##/##)
• Notes
• I would take ahead/behind: ____________

Overvalued -

• Peyton Manning (5/4)
• There are too many good WRs and RBs in the first 9 picks for me to get Manning or other QBs before pick 9
• I typically am favorable to taking a QB early, however the difference between the top 3 and 9-12, while still substantial, may be less than ever before.
• Forte, Lacey, Calvin, Dez, Demaryius, Graham
• Julius Thomas, TE (31/25)
• I like Thomas as the #2 TE, but there are too many players of other positions I would rather have
• Antonio Brown, Cobb, Ellington
• Gronk (26/31)
• Simply too risky for my blood anymore. Coming off knee and back injuries (ACL in Week 14 last year) I question if he will return to his pre-injury form.
• I still have him as my #3 TE
• See Julius Thomas
• Andrew Luck (52/36)
• QB is too deep this year
• Ellington, Gerhart, Jennings, Andre, Keenan Allen
• Gore (46/38)
• His touches will be limited. Not much tread left on his tires
• Jennings, Gerhart, Vereen 
• Zac Stacey (25/18)
• Upside is too limited given risk of low floor. Young player, not exactly sure what I'm getting. I advocate avoiding risky picks in the first 2 rounds.
• Morris, Bernard, Ellington
• Keenan Allen (42/47)
• I like the player and his ADP is close. This is mostly a ranking of seeing other WRs also being undervalued around him and a limited body of evidence with an offensive coordinator change.
• Roddy White, Cruz, Crabtree
• Sammy Watkins (86/74)
• Rookie, no QB, run first team
• Almost anyone. I'm not convinced Watkins is draftable.

Undervalued -

• Roddy White (53/48)
• Falcons line improved, healthy, large body of evidence supporting White as a high caliber receiver
• D-Jax, Garcon, Allen
• Michael Floyd (63/70)
• 1000+ yard receiver as a sophomore receiver. Second year in Arians' system. I think his 1000 yard, 5 TD 2013 campaign is his floor
• Hilton, Edelman, TEs, QBs
• Gerhart (35/62)
• Again, CBS is good here, ESPN at 62 is crazy, especially if you are in a ppr league
• RBs are thin, you need to get 3 quality RBs and Gerhart is a great low end 2nd or high end 3rd
• Gore, Tate, Matthews, Spiller, lots of WRs
• Pierre Thomas (86/79)
• 77 receptions last year, no Sproles...
• Sankey, Steven Jackson, Ridley, TEs, QBs
• QBs in the 9-14 range
• I don't care who falls here, but whoever does will be a great value on draft day. I especially like Brady/Romo/Ryan
• The 5th through 8th QBs off the board
• Terrance Williams (96/85)
• #2 WR in an offense that may though > 650 times, I am buying
• Wayne, Boldin, Wallace
• Andre Ellington (30/50)
• High talent, in line for lots of touches. 30 is a fair valuation, 50 is drastically too low
• Matthews, Ben Tate, Gore, lots of WRs
• Dez Bryant (17/16)
• High floor and high ceiling. See Terrance Williams.
• #3 WR for me. I have as a top 11 selection
• Decker (96/85)
• Geno Smith has improved. Someone has to catch the ball. Once they get in the red zone he is their best target
• Wayne, Maclin, Welker
• Torrey Smith (72/73)
• Welker, Edelman, Harvin

Sleepers -

• Bryce Brown
• Chances either Spiller or Jackson gets hurt?
• Rudolph
• Norv Turner with an improved offense
• Randle
• #2 WR in a West Coast offense w/o a TE. Biggest red zone threat for the NYG.
• Heath Miller
• Healed from injuries, Pit lost Emmanuel Sanders and Cotchery, they are going to pass
• Justin Hunter
• Sophomore WR with great offensive coordinator and has looked good in the preseason
• Lots of rookie RBs
• Hyde, West, Andre Williams
• Baldwin
• Tate gone, Seattle will limit Lynch's carriers
• Brandon Cooks
• Down Lance Moore. Colston is an injury risk. I think locked in as #2 or #3 WR in the Saints offense. I like the potential opportunity.
• Boykin
• If Nelson or Cobb gets nicked up. Plus the #3 WR for GB in absence of a TE could be good this year as well.
• Zach Ertz – 
• Eagles have to replace D-Jax. I don't trust Maclin or Cooper. I see a lot of McCoy and Ertz this year.

tldr: Have a flexible plan. Know your draft board including who to target where and what positions are available at various points in the draft. Assume everyone knows everything. Find your edge managing risk, taking value when it falls to you, and made every pick provide value.

Have a great year of enjoying America's favorite sport and check back in two weeks when I recap my drafts.

Fantasy Football: 2013 Draft Recap

QAPI. If like me you often interact with the health care system in general, and with Medicare/Medicaid/CMS in particular, you have likely heard of QAPI. QAPI stands for:

I would say there are few things we should model after government services, but QAPI is one of them.

I believe all endeavors should start with SMART goals prior to any action. QAPI should then follow all significant actions. This includes fantasy football, especially the draft. I believe the sooner to an event QAPI is utilized, the more fruitful the process. Thus, following each draft I carve out two ~15 minute sessions to analyze my draft performance. Ideally I will write initial thoughts within 1 hour of finishing the draft and further review my performance the next day. When utilizing QAPI, it is important to review the processes and overall system of decision making, not just the outcomes. We are interested in the means to the end, not the end. Perfect the means, and the end result (Fantasy Football Championship) will follow.

I adamantly support applying QAPI to fantasy football drafts as it is an efficient method of future improvement. I ask myself multiple, open-ended  questions:

• What are my initial impressions/thoughts?
• What went according to plan?
• What was unexpected? 
• How did I respond to unexpected events? 
• Why did I respond in this manner?
• How can I better prepare for these in the future?
• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What was just plain ugly?
• What would I do the same?
• What, if given the same set of circumstances, would I do differently?
• What changes can be made to improve performance in the future?
• What do I consider keys to success?
• Summary/Final Thoughts

I have outlined my 2013 draft analysis QAPI in the following format:

• Players who are struggling/breaking out 3 weeks into season with thoughts of how to anticipate these in the future
• Draft Analysis – the good, bad, ugly, and final thoughts
• Conclusion

Surprises -

Struggling -

• Tom Brady
• Amendola and Gronk injuries have dragged on
• C.J. Spiller
• New coaching staff, new QB, defenses stacking the box
• Did have 1600+ yards with a 6.0 YPC average last year. I still haven’t given up hope on Spiller
• RBs in general: Ray Rice, Spiller, T-Rich, Ridley, Morris, Foster, CJ, S-Jax
• Haven’t given up hope on any of these yet. Although I was never high on Morris, I would definitely consider trading for him at this point
• New York Giants
• General decline in recent years, but unexpected to this degree
• Monitor early declines. If changes are not made during the offseason, momentum may continue driving them further down
• Kenny Britt
• Maybe not a huge surprise, was high risk high reward to begin with
• Lance Moore
• No idea… Too many mouths to feed? If he wasn’t injured I would still give him a chance, but just drop him at this point
• Roddy White
• Injury – trade for this guy if you can get a reasonable value
• Dwayne Bowe
• Even with a great coach and passing scheme with Andy Reid, do apparently need a QB
• Rob Gronkowski
• Prolonged injury

Breaking out -

• Jordan Cameron
• I did see this coming as I picked him up quickly in the preseason. New head coach and offensive coordinator who love TEs. Expected the same from Rob Housler, but high ankle sprain has sidelined Housler
• Pierre Garcon
• Not convinced. Too shaky of QB play
• Jimmy Graham
• Huge stats, more than I would have even expected. Never underestimate elite QBs with elite pass catchers.
• Julius Thomas, DEN TE
• Peyton Manning – NFL is a QB league, anyone on a team with an elite quarterback has their value rise tremendously
• Martellus Bennett
• Not convinced, Cutler has his struggles coupled with poor offense line keeping him in to help with blocking...

Hawkeye League Analysis –

Overview

• RB slide will hurt me as I loaded up with RBs on my first 3 picks
• Steven Jackson fell to #40 overall, Steven Ridley to #46
• Need to hit some fliers on WRs due to going heavy RB and Stafford early in the draft (only drafted 1 WR in first 6 picks)
• I do like Lance Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, and Miles Austin as replacement level players. Thus I feel as if I am deep at replacement level WR, but unfortunately do not have a lot of sleeper WR potential which may hamstring my success

Good

• #1 overall pick, random luck here as I do believe this was the best pick in the draft
• Great value in RBs by being able to start Adrian Peterson (1), C.J. Spiller (16), Trent Richardson (17), and Darren Sproles (48)
• Was able to secure two QBs I am very comfortable starting in Stafford and Eli Manning. I feel Eli Manning at 64th overall was great value
• As mentioned above, very happy with caliber of replacement level WRs.

Bad

• Dwayne Bowe at 33
• Don’t get me wrong, I am very high on Bowe (Draft Plan), however I left Vincent Jackson on the board who probably has both a higher floor and higher ceiling
• Projected Net Loss: 150 yards, 1 TD, 21 points

Ugly

• Steve Smith at 49
• Arghh!!! – I hate myself for this one. Welker is such an easy lock here over Steve Smith, whiffed big time on this one. Got flustered after Reggie Wayne was taken right before me
• Projected net loss: 150 yards, 4 TDs, 39 points
• Missed Jared Cook at 113
• Was overconfident in my ability to secure Cook after 10 TEs had been drafted in an 8 team league
• While ugly it is difficult to predict a projected net loss as we don’t know much about Cook or my two TEs in Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler
• I estimate a 100 yard, 2 TD, 22 point loss here

Final thoughts

• I feel I left a total of 82 points on the board or 5.1 points per week in a 16 game season
• Due to the competitiveness of the league, I project I will finish 5/8 and miss the playoffs. A very poor draft overall considering I believe I had the best pick in the draft at #1 overall
• This is the league I am 0-3 in, may not even be able to finish in top 5…

LDF Draft Analysis

Overview

• As feared, got squeezed on my 57th overall pick (Draft Planning)
• Very interesting draft as I reached for Gronk at 40 overall
• This was not my original plan (originally would have take at 57), but with news Gronk is practicing in full pads, I was unable to pass him up in a low competition league where 8/12 teams make the playoffs. Decided to work towards having a solid second half team rather than first half team as I typically follow.
• Actually waited longer on a QB than originally thought. Was expecting to pickup one at 105 however I left Eli Manning on the board in favor of Josh Gordon. Worked out alright as I ended up with Bradford and Palmer, two QBs I was willing to take a chance on.
• Have since picked up Philip Rivers
• Going to suffer at RB (as expected without having a 2nd RB in the first 4 rounds) as Ivory or Mendenhall is currently my #2. Going to need a break on waivers.

Good

• Huge upside with Gronk

Bad

• No real breakout candidates as was stuck drafting the likes of Mendenhall, Powell, Ingram on my bench to try to get a #2 RB. Was good value in WRs at this point I was forced to pass on to shore up RB position
• Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson

Ugly

• Nothing really ugly about this draft, I did get heckled about waiting so long to take a QB, but I still believe it was best to wait. I actually took the 17th QB off the board for my first QB in a 12 team league. Five other teams had already taken backups…

Final thoughts

• While I do not disagree with any of my picks, I do not like the way the dice fell in this draft. Going back it probably would have been wiser to take Le’Von Bell rather than Ivory. Tough to say though.
• May have left Ingram on the board and taken T.Y. Hilton
• Given I can secure a #2 RB my team should be very solid.

2013 has the looks of a rough year in fantasy football. I have a started out 0-3 in the Hawkeye League and 2-1 in LDF league. A high probability exists of having a second straight year where I fail to make the playoffs. This would put me at making the playoffs in 3/5 leagues in 2012 and 2013 combined. Still better than average, but I believe I should be able to achieve 4/5 or 5/5 playoff bound teams. The key takeaway message from this year’s drafting: preparation is still key. Both drafts went unexpectedly. I feel I was able to effectively adapt well for both situations with the exception of taking Steve Smith over Welker. That one is going to haunt me all year… As showcased above, I strongly recommend utilizing QAPI in both fantasy football as well as other significant endeavors to improve overall performance and future decision making.

Next Post Topic: Gardening Recap

Fantasy Football 2013: Draft Planning

After a disappointing year of fantasy football in 2012 where I failed to make the playoffs in 1 of my 3 leagues, I will be hoping to rebound with a better performance in 2013. Below I will layout my flexible blueprint of how I plan to accomplish my self-promoted road to the playoffs without watch any games method.

Today's post is broken down into an initial disclaimer, followed by a separate strategy for both of my leagues, and concludes with a list of what I perceive as undervalued and overvalued players based on ESPN average draft position (ADP).

Disclaimer -
Please see "How to win your league without watching games" to see how important the format and scoring system is to proper player valuation. This is especially important in my lists of undervalued, overvalued, and sleeper lists. Again, it is essential you modify player valuations based on league format and scoring system. Do not ignore this!

Hawkeye League -

• 8 team, 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 DST, ppr, 6 point TD passes, 4 teams make playoffs, bonuses for 100 rushing/receiving yards, 300 for pass yards
• RBs and TEs less valuable, QBs and WRs more valuable
• 1st pick
• 1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49, 64, 65, 80, 81, 96, 97, 112, 113
• General strategy
• Wait on TE
• I cannot see myself drafting a TE before the end of the draft. I would take Graham at 32 and Gronk at 48 but I do not see there being any chance either of these two would get to me at these spots.
• Problem of snake type drafts and reason I support auction formats.
• Finley, Cook, Myers, Bennent are excellent replacements
• Even longer fliers in Fred Davis, Jordan Cameron, Rob Housler
• Want 1 QB being Eli Manning or better, not opposed to taking 2 QBs if value is there.
• Unlikely Brees/Rodgers will fall to 16, I have Peyton as my 18th overall player thus will miss out on Peyton.
• Would take Stafford/Ryan/Brady at 33
• May be a decent chance I hit one of these

• While I love that I will get Adrian Peterson, I do not like being on the ends of a snake draft. It is nice that it is only an 8 team league rather than a 12 team league and I will only be waiting 15 spots between selections as opposed to 23 in a 12 team draft.
• I also think there is a lot of value in the first 16 picks, being the first pick gives me the best chance at acquiring 3 great players.
• In fact I think if given the option I would take the #1 pick this year, talk about high expectations, my draft to lose!
• Safe WRs look to be gone by pick 55, thus will ideally have picked up 3-4 quality WRs after my 49th pick (2-3 RBs, 1 QB, 3-4 WRs)
• 7 total picks (1, 16, 17, 32, 33, 48, 49)
• Difficult to project exactly who will be available after the first 5 rounds. I do plan to have a minimum of 3 RBs after my 65th pick
• Would be targeting Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Shane Vereen, Le’Veon Bell (worst case scenario)
• I am comfortable with a lot of WR fliers thus I am most willing to punt on WRs.
• Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, Steve Johnson, Michael Floyd
• All these I think can serve as serviceable WRs who would not surprise me to eclipse 1000 yards and 6 TDs
• Also okay with have 1 questionable starting QB.
• I like Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Michael Vick, and Sam Bradford if I am able to bypass a 2nd QB earlier in the draft in favor of good value at another position.
• Draft Plan
• Keep plans simple and flexible, weird things seem to always happen in drafts :)
• RB/WR/RB/QB/WR/WR/WR
• AP/A.J. Green/Forte/Stafford/Fitzgerald/Bowe/Wayne
• Will be looking to take a QB after 49 if Eli Manning or better is available. Otherwise plan to wait on 2nd QB until essentially end of draft.
• As for TE, will again wait to essentially the end of the draft.
• Fill in RBs/WRs in between.

LDF -

• 12 team, 2 keeper, standard scoring with 8 teams making playoffs
• Following last year’s trend I traded up for keepers, trading Matt Forte and the 112th overall pick for C.J. Spiller and the 133rd overall pick.
• I will also be keeping Calvin Johnson

• Pick 9
• 33, 40, 57, 64, 81, 88, 105, 129, 133, 136, 153, 160, 177, 184
• Very difficult draft to predict as later rounds will be very difficult to know who will be there (rationale for doing mock drafts)
• As in Hawkeye League, I will be planning on punting TEs and QBs
• TEs
• Would take Graham (kept) at 40 or Gronk at 57, but unlikely either gets to those spots.
• QBs
• 7 QBs were kept (including Stafford) meaning there will be some good players at pick 33 :)
• I would take Matt Ryan (and Stafford if would have been available) at 57, probably unlikely Ryan would ever fall to 57 though
• Thus plan will be to take a QB immediately before teams start taking their backup QB which will probably be in the 9th-11th rounds at the earliest, or picks 105 - 136.
• Will grab Luck/Wilson/Kaepernick at 105 or whoever is left at 136
• RBs
• All depends on value, plan have 2 after my 40th pick
• From mock draft basically need 2 by 40 unless a stellar WR is still on the board such as Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, or Larry Fitzgerald
• Will depend on value for my 64th pick if I end up waiting until 81 to secure my 3rd RB or take at 64
• WRs
• I will plan to fill in WRs when value does not exist at other positions as I feel WRs are the deepest later in the draft.
• As in Hawkeye League, I feel WR dropoff at 55, makes for a difficult 57th pick
• Overall
• Unlikely I take anything other than a RB or WR before my QB at 105 :)
• Based on players remaining, worst case scenario is Chris Johnson at 33 and Bowe/Amendola at 40
• Unfortunately am 1 pick off of having L-Fitz, V-Jax, or Andre Johnson guaranteed at 40.

Player Valuations -

Format:

• Player Name (ESPN Average Draft Position (##))
• Notes
• I would take ahead (or would rather take) of: ____________

Undervalued -

• Bush (44)
• Looking at 1300 yards and 8 TDs
• David Wilson, DMC, Sproles
• Bowe (55)
• Could perform at level of L-Fitz, V-Jax
• Welker, Colston, Wayne
• Lamar Miller (64)
• Starting RB
• Ball, Lacey, Ivory
• Romo (76)
• Great value here for 4k+ yards and potential for 30+ TDs
• Don’t really like better than anyone else just at the end of large group of QBs that I expect to perform similar
• Cecil Shorts (81)
• Boldin, Tavon Austin, Antonio Brown
• Although would rather have Blackmon
• Rashard Mendenhall (84)
• Last man standing
• Green-Ellis, Bradshaw
• Steve Johnson (86)
• 3 straight 1k yard seasons, playing out of the slot this year, will get more mismatches
• See Cecil Shorts
• Miles Austin (93)
• Unsexy but productive
• See Cecil Shorts
• Shane Vereen (94)
• Unbelievable value here
• See Mendenhall, only a full round later
• Lance Moore (98) - picture

• 2nd WR on the saints, I’m buying
• See Cecil Shorts
• Kenny Britt (108)
• Huge risk reward here, I really really like the upside
• Emmanuel Sanders (109)
• Will post better stats than his teammate Antonio Brown who is going 4-5 rounds earlier
• Mike Williams, Sidney Rice, T.Y. Hilton (who I also like at his current value)
• Josh Gordon (118)
• Could be in for big year

Overvalued -

• Frank Gore (23)
• Too much risk - decreased carries, decreased receptions, lack of effectiveness at end of season
• Chris Johnson, MJD, Reggie Bush
• David Wilson (37)
• Too much risk - Seems guaranteed platoon with Andre Brown, won't receive goal line carries, no previous track record (most touches previously in 1 game was 16...
• Lots: Bush, Murray, DMC, Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews
• Kaepernick (39)
• Too many similar producing QBs in later rounds. Too high risk with lack of offensive weapons surrounding him.
• Not good enough to separate from Romo, Stafford, Luck all going 2-4 rounds later
• Montee Ball (41)
• Not even sure is starting…, no track record, lots of RBs on roster will get touches: Hillman, Moreno, Lance Ball
• Wallace(49)
• Just got paid, huge questions at QB and offensive line, could just be a disaster
• Amendola, Bowe, Decker
• ToGo (50)
• Too many TEs this year outside of Graham and Gronk, don’t pay for one, especially not in the 4th or 5th round with limited upside
• Witten (51)
• See ToGo, exception being okay here in ppr formats
• Antonio Brown (66)
• Would rather have Emmanuel Sanders 4-5 rounds later; Torrey Smith, Steve Johnson
• Rudolph (74)
• See ToGo, plus he has Ponder throwing to him
• Okay to draft if you can rock a sweet team name
• Greg Jennings (77)
• Ponder had 0 TD passes more than 20 years ago and they have a phenom in AP
• Short WR (not playing out of slot) with a below industry standard QB

Sleepers -

As mentioned in Part I of my fantasy football strategy, I do not win leagues based on sleepers. Thus I have a very short list of sleepers. I define a sleeper as a player whose ADP is > 130, as anything below that I would simply consider good value

• Michael Floyd (135) – buying Arizona this year
• Donnie Avery (undrafted) – buying KC this year, Steven Breaston just got cut leaving Avery as #2 in a West Coast offense (well #3 behind Bowe and Charles)
• Any patriot not named Brady and Amendola
• Dodson (183), Kenbrell Thompkins (123), Zac Sudfeld (138)
• Justin Blackmon (169)
• Without a 4 game suspension he should be going ~50 picks earlier. At this point he is a bench player anyways, grab him, place him on your bench, and start him during bye weeks
• Reuban Randle (146)
• Boom or bust here, great candidate for a late round flier
• Deandre Hopkins (144)
• Brian Hartline (180) 
• PPR formats - could be a respectable fill in
• Alshon Jeffrey (163)

It is my hope the above two case examples provide real time and real world studies of my fantasy football methodology. As in 2012 I will provide a post-draft, mid-year, and year end recap. 

Next Post Topic: Book Review III

Fantasy Football: Winning without watching any games Part I

Playing fantasy football without watching the games is like:

• Watching movie previews and claiming to be a movie critic
• Acting like an expert rodeo clown on the premise you…

I acknowledge the claim you can be one of the best performing teams in your fantasy football league without watching more than a handful of regular season games (and mostly Vikings games...) in the last 5 years sounds absurd. I assure you though, I am fully committed to this strategy. More importantly, my wife fully supports the countless hours I save by not watching them as well :).

I started playing fantasy football in 2004 and have been playing ever since. Click the expandable text below to see a synopsis of my performances with a few comments. Otherwise the bottom line is listed right below.

Previous Results

History of my fantasy football experience

Example format:
Regular Season Record; Regular Season Finish; Total Points Finish

8-5; 3/10; 4/10 in total points
8-5 = Regular Season Record
3/10 = Regular Season Finish
4/10 = Total Points Finish

I don’t have as much detail with the earlier leagues as I cannot remember my thinking or injuries (other than my thinking was clearly flawed). The last 3-4 years I remember much more and will write some notes.

• 2004
• Warhawk 
• 10-2-2; 2/8; 1/8 in points
• Drafted Peyton Manning #1 overall
• Threw for 49 TDs, but still a mistake to draft #1 overall
• Defense in Round 6 – oops :)
• K 13th round
• Curtis my favorite Martin in round 11, nice :)
• Tiki Barber in the 15th

• 2005
• Warhawk: 9-5; 3/8; 3rd in total points
• Def in 8th, K in 9th - getting better :)
• College#1: 4-9; 8/8; 8/8 in total points
• K in 9th, Def in 12th
• College#2: 8-6; 2/8; 6/8 in total points
• Def in 14th round, K in 10th though

• 2006
• Warhawk: 5-8; 8/10; 9/10 in total points
• K in 9th and 17th!,  Def in 10th (face palm)
• College#1: 5-8; 9/10; 7/10 in total points
• Def in 7th, K in 11th

• 2007
• Warhawk
• 4-9; 14/16; 6/16 in total points – ouch!
• Baltimore round 6 again, uhh! K in 15th

• 2008
• Warhawk
• 11-2, 1/12; 3/12 in total points
• Cowboys defense round 8 (face palm)
• Iowa
• 2/10 (can't find records on CBS)

• 2009
• Warhawk
• 7-6; 6/12; 5/12 in total points
• This is the one I sandbagged late due to draft order in next year being based off regular season record, not playoff finishing :)
• Lost 3 of last 4 games
• Chargers defense in 14th round, now we are talking :)
• Iowa
• 2-11; 10/10; 10/10 in total points - ouch

• 2010
• Warhawk
• 9-4; 2/12; Championship!; 1/12 in total season points
• Further sandbagging, lost 3 of last 4 (was 8-1 prior)
• Giants defense in 15th round
• Iowa
• 7-6; 6/12; 4/12 in total points
• Bengals in 14th round

• 2011 – year of the injury bug
• Warhawk
• 7-5-1; 3/12; 5/12 in total points
• More sandbagging, lost 3 of last 4
• Chargers in 14th round
• P. Manning, uhh
• HoP
• 9-4; 2/10; 2/10 in total points
• Jamal Charles, uhh
• Iowa
• 9-5; 4/8; 4/8 in total points
• Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, uhh

Please refer to Fantasy Football 2012 Recap for 2012 results.

Bottom line:
Playoffs made while watching games: 3/7
Playoffs made while not watching games: 10/12

The numbers speak for themselves. The most common objection I receive is I have gotten better as I have gained experience. My counter would be so have all my other league members, especially in the Warhawk league. In addition, the case I am presenting is the ability to win fantasy football leagues without watching games. Regardless of how I improved, I have consistently shown across multiple leagues, spanning multiple years, my strategy of not watching any games has been very successful.

I will showcase transparency by posting my research and plan before my drafts as in 2012. Due to the extensive amount of information and lengthy explanations, I plan to breakdown the topic into multiple posts as follows:

1. Overview
2. League Rules and Scoring System
3. Risk Management Overview
4. ADP Charts
5. Tiers (initial player valuation)
6. Research
7. Update Tiers (second player valuation)
8. Draft Map
9. Mock Drafts
10. Draft Day

Draft Strategy Overview –

Most of my time and effort goes into draft preparation. Draft preparation is to fantasy football what rodeo clowns are to bull riders: you don’t need clowns to ride a bull, but things get ugly without them.

My draft preparation starts ~1 month prior to my draft. I recommend budgeting 10-20 hours to complete draft preparation (more detailed estimates are found throughout ensuing posts). My time investment into fantasy football is heavily front loaded. I spend little time managing my team after the draft. Remember, I don’t watch games. The time I save not watching games is far more substantial than the initial draft preparation time investment.

Building my house of cards :)

My edge in fantasy football over my competition comes not from picking winners (aka sleepers), but rather from managing risk and getting good value with each draft pick. I loosely ascribe to value based drafting and finding an optimal balance of risk and reward.

In summary, I want to get the best value for the players I am taking at my draft position. Getting good value is something everyone wants, however, in the following posts I will go into detail exactly how I maximize value and manage risk.

Next week's topic: Fantasy Football Part 2: Preparing for Draft Day