Fantasy Football Part 1: Draft Day Planning

“Everyone has a plan until they get hit.” – Mike Tyson

Warning: This will be a lengthy blog post compiling a massive amount of information with potentially excruciating detail for some of you. For others, who are like me (nerds and geeks), you may find it enthralling. Due to the length, it will read more like a biology lab report than a blog post :)

If you have never seen the movie Moneyball, I highly recommend it. The man pictured above approaches baseball almost exactly as I approach fantasy football.

The main objective of this post is simply to achieve transparency, and my overall goal of my fantasy football posts is to detail my approach to fantasy football. Thus, I apologize that while I will document who and where I plan to draft, you will have to wait a couple months to read my rational for deciding who to draft where.

House of Prayer League -

League Details: 10 team PPR, above average competition

Standard league with 7 starting roster spots (I do not include DEF/K). Thus the top 70 players off the board (10 teams x 7 roster spots) will be the starting teams. This is a little lower than I like (70), and will result with most teams ending up with a pretty good team.

Draft Position: #4. This is actually my ideal position. I would have been happy with picks 1-7.

General Plan:

• In a league with above average competition, it is likely every team is going to have a weak position (QB, RB, WR, TE). 
• I plan to have a self inflicted weakest spot of RB.
• Jimmy Graham may have great value, I would take in middle of second round

• Lots of good WRs in the middle rounds (3-6) ranging from Fitzgerald to Decker
• Will plan to draft almost all my wide receivers here
• I also believe I have a few good WRs picked out in the late rounds: DHB, Austin Collie, Nate Washington, thus I will err on the side of waiting for WRs

Individual round plan:
Expected: QB1-TE1-RB1-WR1-WR2-WR3-RB2-best available

Numbers in (xx) are the overall pick number:

• 1 (4) – QB (unless Ray Rice falls)
• 2 (17) – Jimmy Graham or best RB
• 3 (24) – RB (DMC, Murray, or better), Gronk, WR 
• Ideally will have QB-TE-RB, would also settle for QB-RB-WR, or Rice-TE-WR
• Again, want 1 RB in first 3 rounds
• 4 (37) – WR (Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Nelson, Nicks, or better)
• 5 (44) – Reggie Bush/WR (Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin)
• 6 (57) – WR/RB (Dez Bryant, Isaac Redman)/Witten (if didn’t get Graham or Gronk)
• If have 3 WRs would look for Redman at this point
• 7 (64) – WR/RB (Steve Johnson, Eric Decker/Isaac Redman, Peyton Hillis)
• 8-13 – Best available WR/RB + 1 backup QB
• 14 – Jared Cook or best available WR/RB
• 15 – Defense (Bills, Patriots, Bengals)
• 16 – Kicker

Ideal Team

1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Jimmy Graham
3) DMC
4) Brandon Marshall
5) Reggie Bush
6) Percy Harvin/Dez Bryant/Erik Decker (this is biggest stretch, need 1 to fall here)
7) Steve Johnson
8) Peyton Hillis

Iowa Hawkeye League –
League Details: 8 team PPR, very high competition, 10 active roster spots = top 80 players drafted (2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex), 6 points per passing TD

Draft Position: ???

• Hoping for position 3-4. As long as I don’t get pick 8 I will be happy though
• At 8th pick you are forced to reach for your second player :/
• Plans set for 1, 4, and 8 position
• Extremely tough draft due to unknown draft position coupled with the high caliber of players across the board.

General Plan:

• QBs highly valued as 16 will be starting and 6 points per passing TD
• Hoping to have 2 of the top 11 QBs
• TEs undervalued as only the top 8 will be starting
• RBs a little undervalued as only forced to start 2 (can play 2 RBs and 5 WRs)

Individual round plans:
Pick 4 -
Expected: QB1-RB1-WR1-WR2-WR3-QB2-WR4-RB2-WR5-RB3-WR6-TE1

Additional round by round details

• 1 (4): QB1
• 2 (13): QB2 (Stafford)/RB1 (forte)
• 3 (20): WR (RB1 if went QB/QB)
• Want 1 RB in the first 3 rounds
• 4 (29): WR (Marshall, Julio Jones, Nicks)
• 5 (36): WR (Nelson, Percy Harvin)
• 6 (45): QB2/ Bush(RB2)/WR
• 7 (52): Bush(RB2)/WR (Decker, Dez)
• 8 (61): WR4
• 9 (68): RB (Hillis/Law Firm/ Brown)
• 10 (77): RB (Kevin Smith)
• 11 (84): Reggie Wayne (Collie w/concussion)
• 12 (93): DHB
• 13 (100): TE1 – Pettigrew/Tamme/Cincy’s TE
• Other targets – Collie, Cincy’s TE, Raschard Jennings, Mike Williams –TB WR, Santana Moss, Nate Washington

Pick 1 -
Expected: RB1-RB2-WR1-WR2-QB1-QB2-WR3-best available

Additional round by round details

• 1 (1): RB1 - Rice
• 2 (16): RB2 (QB if some how Stafford falls here – very outside chance)
• 3 (17): WR1
• 4 (32):WR2
• 5 (33): QB1/WR3 – tough pick here, not sure I want to wait to 48/49 for QBs
• 6 (48): QB1/WR3
• 7 (49): QB2
• 8 (64): WR/RB (best available)
• 9 (65): WR/RB (best available)
• 10 (80):TE1

Pick 8 - 
Tough pick, grab QB or not, depends how much you like Stafford…

Expected: All depends on who falls to me, worst case scenario is I end up with Chris Johnson and Stafford, so:
RB1-QB1-WR1-WR2-QB2-WR3-WR4-best available

Additional round by round details

• 1 (8): QB/Calvin Johnson/Chris Johnson/Stafford
• 2 (9): See above
• 3 (24): WR/RB1
• Again, want 1 RB in first 3 rounds
• 4 (25):WR2
• 5 (40): QB2 - Vick
• 6 (41): WR3
• 7 (56): WR4
• 8 (57): WR5/RB2 – best available
• 9 (72): RB - Donald Brown/Hillis
• 10 (73): WR/RB – best available

Summarizing the above, it is important to have a loose framework allowing for sufficient flexibility such that when you get hit with the unexpected on draft day, you are able to quickly adapt. Plans are largely dependent on individual leagues as shown where I value TEs. I hope by writing this post, it will achieve my goal of increasing the transparency of my approach to fantasy football.

Next week’s topic:  The Role of Government

Why you need this blog.

Even though I truly believe I will benefit from blogging even if no one reads my posts, I sincerely want the time you spend reading my elementary writing to be worthwhile, intellectual, and entertaining. It is my hope readers will leave my blog with a greater and more respectful understanding (as opposed to wrathful) of the particular perspective I present.

It is my aim to bridge competing perspective’s gaps on ‘hot button’ issues rather than widen the huge schisms already all too present. Most of all though, if you do chose to spend a part of your day reading what I author, I hope you find it enjoyable. Please do not read my blog if you do not find it enjoyable. 


Without further adieu, the 3 reasons you need this blog:

1) We are ignorant and unstable people.

Many of us are fully capable of having a well researched and rational understanding of what our favorite sports team should do: personnel changes, play calling, and diagnosing what is working and what needs to be changed. For those who do not relate to sports, many are able to express very comprehensive thoughts pertaining to what would be best for celebrity relationships. 

We are also able to make very compelling statements as to why various movies, TV series, and written material were successful, or what could have been done differently for those that failed to live up to our expectations. The quote: “everyone is a critic” seems to be true.

However, myself included, we know not the names, nor recognize the faces of our elected officials, let alone know their stance on any given number of issues: how they intend to spend OUR money (yes they are spending the money we give them from taxes), how they propose to enact their social agenda, and even if they are trustworthy.

In summary, you need this blog because we are ignorant of the policies and agendas of our elected officials and unstable when attempting to discuss them with other people.

2) No accountability.

Secondary to our ignorant and unstable nature, we do not understand how to hold those responsible accountable for their actions. Thus we end up with huge corporations getting bailed out with taxpayer money for their irresponsibility. No accountability.

For Example:

• TARP: Troubled Assets Relief Program
• Bank Bailout
• Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Bailout
• AIG Bailout
• Auto Industry Bailout
• Quantitative Easing 1 and 2 (QE): ~$2 trillion, ouch…

Click here for QE details

QE: The US Federal Reserve held between $700 billion and $800 billion of Treasury notes on its balance sheet before the recession. In late November 2008, the Fed started buying $600 billion in Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).[42] By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, MBS, and Treasury notes, and reached a peak of $2.1 trillion in June 2010. Further purchases were halted as the economy had started to improve, but resumed in August 2010 when the Fed decided the economy was not growing robustly. After the halt in June holdings started falling naturally as debt matured and were projected to fall to $1.7 trillion by 2012. The Fed's revised goal became to keep holdings at the $2.054 trillion level. To maintain that level, the Fed bought $30 billion in 2–10 year Treasury notes a month. In November 2010, the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing, or "QE2", buying $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.[43][44]

42. Conerly, Bill (13 September 2012). "QE3 and the Economy: It Will Help, But Not Solve All Problems". Forbes. Retrieved 13 September 2012.
43. Inman, Phillip (14 July 2011). "Moody's sounds note of caution while Bernanke promises support for U.S. economy". The Guardian (London). Retrieved 19 July 2011.
44. Zumbrun, Joshua (13 September 2012). "Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion MBS Purchases Per Month". Bloomberg News. Retrieved 13 September 2012.

Good Wall Street Bailout Article: Econmatters

I have been unable to locate exact dollar amounts. However, this only supports the point there is a lack of accountability. When taxpayers can no longer see where the government is spending their money, there is no potential for accountability.

You need this blog in order to learn how to demand those individuals in powerful positions be held accountable and be subject to the consequences of their actions or lack of action.


3) We are prideful people.

Please excuse my lack of clarity on this reason. You also need this blog because we need to learn how to agree to disagree. It is not my goal to convert my readers to my beliefs, but rather facilitate an environment where discussion about difficult, controversial issues – money, politics, religion, ect, are discussed respectfully, passionately, and intellectually.

Thus, we need constant training and refinement in not only being educated on controversial subjects, but also in discussing these subjects with those who may not hold the same viewpoint in a civilized and respectful manner.

In conclusion, you need this blog only if you will first and foremost enjoy reading it, followed by:

1. A need to no longer remain ignorant in our knowledge and understanding of political/social policies and agendas.
2. Learning to hold those responsible accountable for their decisions or indecision.
3. We are prideful people (myself included) who have a near impossible time discussing controversial issues in an intellectual, respectful, and civilized manner.

Next week’s topic: Fantasy Football Part 1: Draft Day Planning

Why I need this blog.

I must confess my introductory post is the one I find most difficult to write. I have never been a writer, and I have little confidence in my ability to quickly capture my audience. Thus the best I can give you are my feelings of inadequacy in writing a structurally impressive piece of creative writing. I believe I am a much stronger writer of say... biology lab reports :)

While brainstorming on how to introduce my blog, 

I decided I wanted to primarily write about current issues our country and world is facing. Due to the political nature of my blog I decided upon the name: 

“The Republic of Russ”

In brief I am 26 year old pharmacist living in Bemidji, Minnesota (As my friend Matt puts it: “So, you live in Canada.”). For a more extensive personal history, please my biography.

A few of the reasons I decided to start blogging:

• Writing helps me organize my thoughts and aids me in my everyday conversations.
• I continually encourage my wonderful wife, Renae (pictured below), she should blog more (here is her wonderful blog: Devotedly Red), therefore I feel a strong urge to avoid hypocrisy.

• Gain a broader understanding of topics
• I fear I may be narrow-minded in my young age and lack of real world experience. Therefore, I hope to acquire competing perspectives on issues.
• PLEASE take the time to comment on my posts, I look forward to reading and learning from the insight of others.
• Please email or comment anonymously if you desire for your identity to remain hidden.

(Insert transition) Often times when I write I understand a certain element of writing, in this case a transition, is needed. However, as I have limited writing experience, such elements can be profoundly challenging and distracting. Thus, when writing, I will just put in parentheses what needs to go there and go back and add it in later. As I find it humorous I do this while write, coupled with the fact I still cannot think of anything to put there, I will just leave this one in its "rough draft" form.

Speaking of challenges, I will end with what I envision will be difficult for me in my blogging adventure.

• Holding your interest when (not if) my thoughts become too intellectual and drawn out.
• If you haven’t noticed by the 409 word introduction, I like to use a lot of words; I will try to trim it down as best I can.
• Being disciplined in writing and publishing posts.
• It is my goal to publish 2 posts a month.
• By the time I publish this post I will have actually have written 8-10 posts.
• Consider me a cheater, or consider me intelligent…
• Achieving an optimal mix of posting current issues and current events in my life.

I apologize for the abrupt ending, however, I originally had written a lengthier introductory post and upon review 1.5 years later :), I decided to break it into two posts. Next week I will detail why you need this blog, followed by my best attempt at summarizing the beliefs/values that shape my identity.